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NFL Nation, ESPN
The Detroit Lions were supposed to be here after their run to the NFC Championship Game last season. But the Chicago Bears with a rookie quarterback? The Minnesota Vikings with journeyman Sam Darnold? And the Green Bay Packers after Jordan Love’s knee injury in Week 1?
The other three teams had potential for issues.
Yet, what once was known as the Black and Blue division is now looking down at everyone else. Through six weeks, the NFC North is the best division in football with all four teams currently qualified for the playoffs.
After the Bears, Lions and Packers won Sunday, and with the unbeaten Vikings (5-0) on a bye week, NFC North teams have a combined 17-5 record — the best by any division through six weeks of a season since 1970, according to ESPN Research.
“Yeah, it’s going to be a tough division,” Packers ninth-year defensive tackle Kenny Clark said. “It ain’t been like that for a while, so it’s going to be tough.”
There’s one caveat: The teams haven’t had the chance to beat up on one another yet. The only intra-division game was Minnesota’s Week 4 win at Green Bay.
The second will be Sunday when the Vikings host the Lions — a matchup that pits the No. 2 and No. 3 teams, respectively, in ESPN’s Week 7 Power Rankings.
The NFC North hasn’t had more than one team finish with double-digit wins since 2019 and no team from the division has been to a Super Bowl since the Packers won it after the 2010 season.
Is the NFC North the best division in football? 👀 ⬇️ pic.twitter.com/uTPFSTTv5f
— NFL (@NFL) October 14, 2024
Here’s a look at how the NFC North teams stack up from ESPN NFL Nation reporters Kevin Seifert (Vikings), Eric Woodyard (Lions), Rob Demovsky (Packers) and Courtney Cronin (Bears):
Minnesota Vikings (5-0)
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FPI’s overall ranking: No. 8
Chances to win division: 37.1%
Chances to make the playoffs: 86.2%
Next three games: vs. Lions, at Rams, vs. Colts
Assess the quarterback situation
Sam Darnold has been one of the NFL’s biggest surprises. Originally signed as a placeholder for rookie J.J. McCarthy, Darnold ranks second in the league in touchdown passes per game (2.2) and has followed coach Kevin O’Connell’s aggressive approach with the NFL’s third-highest air yards per attempt average (8.8). He hasn’t been perfect by any means, and his average of 1.2 turnovers per game — tied for third most in the NFL — is worth monitoring. But overall, the Vikings couldn’t ask for much more from a player who has spent a long time in the quarterback wilderness since being picked No. 3 by the Jets in 2018.
Vikings’ X factor player
Tight end T.J. Hockenson returned to practice Oct. 4, nine months after tearing the ACL and MCL in his right knee. He’ll probably need another week or two before he is cleared to play in a game, but his eventual arrival will give the Vikings the same kind of boost as an acquisition at the trade deadline. In his absence, the Vikings have targeted tight ends an average of 3.6 times per game, second fewest in the NFL. They had the NFL’s second-most tight end targets from 2022 to 2023.
Biggest concern going forward
Running back Aaron Jones left the Vikings’ Week 5 game in London because of a hip injury, and their offense looked much different without him in the lineup. Darnold finished with a completion percentage of 45.2%, and backup Ty Chandler had 30 yards on 14 carries. The injury does not appear to be a long-term issue, but it was a reminder of Jones’ past health history and confirmation of how important he has become to the offense.
Reason for optimism
The Vikings’ defense is off to one of the best starts in the 45-year history of the DVOA metric, and even if the group’s performance drops over the rest of the season, it will still rank among the league’s best. Defensive coordinator Brian Flores has added several layers to the scheme he installed last season, and a host of veteran newcomers — from cornerback Stephon Gilmore to linebackers Jonathan Greenard, Blake Cashman and Andrew Van Ginkel — have added playmaking and a deep understanding of his approach. If defense wins championships, the Vikings are on their way. — Kevin Seifert
Detroit Lions (4-1)
FPI’s overall ranking: No. 1
Chances to win division: 41.4%
Chances to make the playoffs: 86.2%
Next three games: at Vikings, vs. Titans, at Packers
Assess the quarterback situation
As the leader of Detroit’s potent offense, veteran quarterback Jared Goff has been locked in. His four interceptions through the first three weeks were the most in his career during that span, but he has been turnover free since then with back-to-back wins over Dallas and Seattle. During those games, the Lions put up 89 points, their most in a two-game span since 1962. Goff also threw a perfect game, setting an NFL record by completing all 18 of his passes against Seattle on Sept. 30.
Lions’ X factor player
Wide receiver Jameson Williams. After a slow start to his career, when he sat out 11 games as a rookie because of a knee injury then was suspended four games for gambling in Year 2, Williams is becoming a breakout star in 2024. Through five games, he has a team-high 365 receiving yards and three touchdowns and is establishing himself as a legitimate deep-ball threat. Williams is the first player in team history to have his first six receiving touchdowns all come on plays of 30 yards or more.
Biggest concern going forward
How will Aidan Hutchinson’s injury affect the team? The defensive end was off to a phenomenal start as the NFL’s leader in sacks and was viewed as an early favorite to win NFL Defensive Player of the Year, but he probably will sit out the rest of the season after undergoing surgery to repair a broken left tibia and fibula sustained Sunday. This is obviously a huge loss, but defensive linemen Josh Paschal, Levi Onwuzurike, DJ Reader and Isaac Ukwu will have to step up in his absence.
Reason for optimism
At their best, the Lions have proved to be among the league’s elite. During the wins over Seattle and Dallas, Detroit scored 40 points in consecutive games for the first time since September 1962, yet the Lions continue to carry an underdog spirit. “The funny thing is, we are not even all on the same page; the small things here and there, that we can clean up,” Lions running back David Montgomery said after the Cowboys win. “The sky is really the limit for us. I am excited to see what’s next.” — Eric Woodyard
Green Bay Packers (4-2)
0:39
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FPI’s overall ranking: No. 6
Chances to win division: 14.8%
Chances to make the playoffs: 65.7%
Next three games: vs. Texans, at Jaguars, vs. Lions
Assess the quarterback situation
Jordan Love is starting to look like his old self for the first time since his Week 1 knee injury. And by old self, we mean the quarterback whose last eight games of 2023 produced 18 touchdowns and one interception. In his past two games, Love has six touchdowns and two interceptions. “I think his play’s been better and better and better,” Packers coach Matt LaFleur said, “and he’s playing with a lot of confidence.” The Packers found out they can win with backup Malik Willis, too, if necessary.
Packers’ X factor player
The “X” man himself, Xavier McKinney. Their highest-priced free agent signing has almost single-handedly changed the direction of their defense. He picked off passes in each of the first five games of the season, and even though he didn’t get one in Week 6, the Packers continued their takeaway mindset with three more as a team. They’re up to 17 now, one shy of their total from all of last season.
Biggest concern going forward
The kicking game. It burned them last season when Anders Carlson missed a 41-yard field goal late in the NFC divisional round playoff loss to the 49ers, and the situation remains unsettled. They have turned to veteran Brandon McManus after rookie Brayden Narveson missed his fifth field goal of the season in Sunday’s win over the Cardinals. McManus, who was signed on Tuesday, is the seventh kicker the Packers have had on their roster since the start of the offseason in January.
Reason for optimism
The Packers have weathered two early season issues: Love’s knee injury and Romeo Doubs’ one-game suspension. Either could have derailed the season, yet the Packers won both games that Willis started, and Doubs caught a pair of touchdowns in his return Sunday. While some might see their inexperience — they’re the youngest team in the league — as a hindrance, it might have helped in both of those cases because they might be young enough to not see them as distractions. — Rob Demovsky
Chicago Bears (4-2)
FPI’s overall ranking: No. 13
Chances to win division: 6.7%
Chances to make the playoffs: 42.2%
Next three games: at Commanders, at Cardinals, vs. Patriots
Assess the quarterback situation
The intense expectations surrounding Caleb Williams created scrutiny when the Bears started 1-2. He has shown significant improvement the past three weeks as he became a more vocal leader — or “bossy,” as receiver DJ Moore jokingly said. Williams has had back-to-back 300-yard passing games, and his completion percentage improved from 59% (Weeks 1-3) to 74% (Weeks 4-6). His yards per attempt increased from 5.3 to 8.5, while his TD-INT ratio went from 2-4 to 7-1 in that stretch. Williams threw four touchdown passes against Jacksonville on Sunday and showed his ability to create outside of structure when he picked up scrambles of 23 and 19 yards. Williams is the first quarterback drafted No. 1 overall to win four of his first six starts in the common draft era. The nine touchdown passes he has thrown are the second most by a Bears rookie.
Bears’ X factor player
D’Andre Swift’s resurgence after averaging 1.8 yards per carry in the first three weeks coincides with the offense’s surge. In Chicago’s three straight wins, the running back generated more than 100 yards from scrimmage and a rushing touchdown in each victory. Chicago averaged 4.1 yards before contact per rush against the Jaguars, which was their most in a game since Week 18, 2022. Swift was the biggest beneficiary with 69 of his 91 yards coming before contact, a trend the Bears hope to continue after averaging 2.3 yards before contact per rush in their first five games of the season, which ranked 22nd in the NFL.
Biggest concern going forward
The bye week came at the right time after the Bears lost three starters in the secondary before and during their 35-16 win over Jacksonville on Sunday. Safety Jaquan Brisker is dealing with his third concussion since 2022, cornerback Tyrique Stevenson has a calf injury and nickel Kyler Gordon was playing his best game of the season when he exited Sunday’s game in the third quarter because of a hamstring injury. Chicago’s secondary is the strongest unit on the team, and while its reserves (Elijah Hicks, Josh Blackwell and Jaylon Jones) did well in Week 6, this unit can’t afford long-term absences from its starters.
Reason for optimism
All three phases are contributing. The Bears’ offense figured out how to establish a run game and distribute the ball to its top weapons in back-to-back blowout wins. Chicago has become a more potent operation (up to 12th in scoring at 24.7 PPG) with a defense that has given up 21 points or fewer in 12 straight games and is tied for second with 13 takeaways. The Bears are starting to hit their stride with winnable games against Arizona and New England on the other side of their Week 7 bye. — Courtney Cronin