To look at the bigger picture and just how good — or bad — every team could be this season, we turned to our ESPN Football Power Index. FPI projected win totals for every team based on 20,000 season simulations performed by our ESPN Stats & Information team, but to find a high and low, we picked out the middle 90% of those simulations. That gave us a ceiling and a floor in terms of expected record for each team in 2024, with extremely unlikely outliers eliminated.
What can we expect for each team this season? If everything goes right, what might each team’s record be? And if the worst scenario plays out, what would their records look like? We pulled the FPI ceilings and floors for every team, then asked our NFL Nation reporters to explain the biggest factor that will determine where each team falls within that win-total spectrum. However, our reporters weren’t allowed to go with the easy answer and write about the success or failure of the quarterback they cover.
In this exercise last year, our analysis theorized that the Chiefs’ pass rush would be the biggest determining factor on whether they reached their ceiling. Kansas City finished second in sacks last year with 57, and that aggressive defense helped the Chiefs win their second straight Super Bowl.
Let’s go division by division, starting with the AFC East:
Jump to a team:
ARI | ATL | BAL | BUF | CAR | CHI | CIN
CLE | DAL | DEN | DET | GB | HOU | IND
JAX | KC | LAC | LAR | LV | MIA | MIN
NE | NO | NYG | NYJ | PHI | PIT | SF
SEA | TB | TEN | WSH
AFC EAST
Ceiling: 13-4 | Floor: 7-10
Biggest X factor: Offseason changes
The Bills’ offseason included significant changes. The team moved on from a number of veteran players — six of eight 2023 team captains have departed. From the revamped wide receiver room — Khalil Shakir is the only one who caught a pass last year — to a new center in Connor McGovern, to having new starting safeties, the Bills will be relying on those additions to make positive contributions. How the team’s returning veteran leaders step up, and the type of impact the new players have, will go a long way in the Bills’ quest for a fifth straight division title. — Alaina Getzenberg