What will decide Bills’ fate in huge matchup with Dolphins?

ORCHARD PARK, N.Y. — A month and a half ago, the idea that the Buffalo Bills would be competing for the AFC East seemed unlikely at best.

Sitting at 5-5 hours after a Week 10 loss to the Denver Broncos, coach Sean McDermott made the decision to fire offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey. Buffalo had more questions than answers. At that point, the Miami Dolphins were 6-3.

Somehow, someway, the Bills managed to win five of their next six games despite one of the league’s toughest strengths of schedule. Now the opportunity of all opportunities sits ahead of them: a chance to win the division for the fourth straight season and make a fifth straight playoff appearance.

“We’ve stuck together throughout the season,” safety Jordan Poyer said. “… I mean, that’s kind of been our motto throughout these last seven years. Our back’s against the wall, and usually we play a lot better when our back’s against the wall.”

Beat the Dolphins on “Sunday Night Football” (8:20 p.m. EST, NBC) and the AFC East division title and the No. 2 seed are Buffalo’s.

Lose in Miami and Buffalo must hope that either the Jacksonville Jaguars or the Pittsburgh Steelers lose, or that the Indianapolis Colts and Houston Texans tie. A Bills-Dolphins tie would also clinch a playoff berth for Buffalo.

If not for their six weeks of resilience, the Bills’ season — once characterized by ups and downs, head-scratching moments, close games and big wins, including a 48-20 win over the Dolphins in Week 4 — would be over.

The Bills will go into this Week 18 game with the offense coming off an underwhelming performance against the New England Patriots, an example of the inconsistencies that remain. As Buffalo heads into its biggest game of the season, where do the problems lie, what needs to be corrected against the Dolphins and which of the recent positives must continue?

Can the Bills find an offensive rhythm?

Quarterback Josh Allen dealt with pressure in the first half against the Patriots, and it did not go well. A line that has seen all five players start every game this year struggled at times. He completed 0 of 6 passes when pressured and 0 of 5 passes when blitzed, while totaling just 7 completions on 20 attempts in the first two quarters.

After the game, center Mitch Morse shared that there were some communication errors on the field, and then a conversation took place on the sideline to discuss what wasn’t working.

“When stuff’s not going our way, it’s easy to, like I said earlier, feel like the world’s crashing on you, but we have good coaches and good guys that really just kind of have each other’s back, really talk it out,” Morse said. “And then when we’re able to do that, communication flowed easier.”

Allen — who did not have a passing touchdown for the first time this season — described himself as being “just off” early in the game and said he couldn’t find a rhythm. Allen completed 5 of 13 passes of 10 or more air yards vs. the Patriots. He has now completed 49.7% of such passes this season, his lowest percentage since 2019. Interim offensive coordinator Joe Brady pointed to the need to get Allen in a groove, a correction that must come from a playcalling perspective as well.

“Just finding a way to just calm his feet down and get him in a rhythm, which is both on myself and making sure that he’s feeling comfortable when he’s in there,” Brady said. “And I feel that I’m just as confident in that I don’t have any issues with that. I know that we’ll be able to get this right.”

Drops and miscommunications with receivers were also a factor against New England. The Bills had three drops in the game, and 16 of their 24 have come since Week 10.

“I thought we had some fundamental issues throughout the first two quarters … with just throwing, catching,” McDermott said. “… We had some penalties that were hurting us as well and across the team — blocking, catching, you know, getting off blocks, beating ourselves with penalties — and that’s where we’ve got to focus heavily this week on improving in those areas.”

Uncharacteristic issues in the red zone prevented Buffalo from establishing a significant lead despite four first-half takeaways, including a pick-six by cornerback Rasul Douglas. The Bills finished 2-of-5 in the red zone (a total that includes a kneel-down on the final drive) despite coming into the day leading the league with a 67.3% red zone touchdown percentage.

The Bills were able to run the ball in the second half, and this is a unit that has shown the ability to adjust under Brady. Continuing that will be vital moving forward. Maybe the 31 points the Bills scored on the Dolphins in the first half in Week 4 won’t be repeated, but the efficiency of that version of the offense should be a goal.

How much will Stefon Diggs be involved?

Diggs is the Bills’ best receiver by a considerable margin; however, he has not had a 100-yard receiving game since Week 6 and has now gone four games without a touchdown or 50 receiving yards.

While Diggs has not been as visible in the offense since the coordinator switch, his snap count percentage was actually up against the Patriots compared to previous weeks (66.2% vs. New England compared to 59.6% vs. the Los Angeles Chargers and a career-low 44.6% in a run-heavy game vs. the Dallas Cowboys).

McDermott said Diggs’ inconsistent involvement is not a function of any physical issues with the receiver.

“I mean, medically there’s nothing big that’s been, to my knowledge, ailing him, and the communication I’m getting from [head athletic trainer] Nate [Breske] … on that,” McDermott said. “And it’s just Josh going through his reads and going through his progressions and making sure that we’re going through the progressions properly.”

Brady said some of Diggs’ participation numbers are a function of giving the receiver plays off or designing plays that don’t have him on the field, and that the dip in production is also related to an increase in running the football and opposing teams’ focus on defending him.

“There’s an intent behind a lot of times throughout the week of certain ones that we can just give a blow off of him for that,” Brady said. “But in critical situations, third down … we obviously want him on the field.”

Brady acknowledged that three passing plays where Diggs was not on the field vs. the Patriots were designed to have him as part of the play.

“The intent was Stef on the field. When he’s not on the field, then Josh trusts whoever is in that position to make the play.”

Brady also said that he has changed playcalls as he saw Diggs coming off the field during games to take a breath or it is communicated to him in the box that Diggs won’t be on the field for the next play, and there have been other times when the play was already in and the offense executed the play with other players.

“There’s sometimes where you got to have confidence in the guys that are in there,” Brady said.

The reality is that when Diggs isn’t out there for a play that calls for him to be on the field, it impacts the offense. No other receiver on the roster commands the attention that Diggs does, and replacing him on plays designed for Diggs won’t necessarily work.

The Bills’ offense is also better when Diggs and Allen are on the same page and the No. 1 wide receiver is on the field. Beating the Dolphins and success in playoff games to come will depend on better production from Diggs.

Can the Bills keep the defensive vibes going?

Could the Bills’ defense do a bit more to close out games earlier? Yes, and that’s been the case throughout the season — with the nail-biter against the Chargers a prime example. But this appears to be a unit moving in the right direction at the right time. Douglas has been a great trade deadline acquisition. In eight games with the Bills, he has 4 interceptions, including 2 vs. the Patriots and the aforementioned pick-six, 8 passes defensed, 2 fumble recoveries, a sack and 29 tackles.

play

Does Bills’ win over Cowboys make them AFC’s most dangerous team?

Jeff Saturday, Domonique Foxworth and Dan Graziano discuss the Bills’ standing in the AFC.

Starting defensive tackle DaQuan Jones is back after a stint on injured reserve with a pectoral injury suffered in Week 5, which is great news for defensive tackle Ed Oliver, who is having a career year in his fifth season with 9.5 sacks (Oliver’s previous career high was five sacks in 2019).

In the past six games, only the Philadelphia Eagles were able to put up more than 22 points on this defense. Since Week 13, the Buffalo defense has allowed one passing touchdown.

“Since maybe like four weeks [ago] we just been playing with that like ‘Bro, we really the best,’ and like, I think we all believe we the best,” Douglas said. “So, it’s like every time we come out there, every series, every snap, we communicate and we talking, we telling each other like, ‘Yo, you the best, bro.'”

It’s a mentality that will serve the unit well in a must-win situation against an explosive Dolphins team.