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Ben Solak, ESPN
Welcome to Week 2! It’s always so challenging to consume the results of Week 1 without overreacting (Atlanta Falcons season over! Caleb Williams bust! New Orleans Saints to the Super Bowl!), but we can do it. The Houston Texans lost by 16 in Week 1 last season. Josh Allen lost to the Zach Wilson-led New York Jets. Weird things happen.
And weird things will happen in Week 2 as well! I have three key games to watch this week, with a game-level bet for each (side or total), as well as a prop for each — and a few more lines and props I’m targeting at the bottom of the page.
All odds current as of publication time and courtesy of ESPN BET.
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Week 1 recap | Bengals-Chiefs | Rams-Cardinals | Falcons-Eagles | Quick hits and SGP
Week 1 recap
Three games got the long preview treatment last week: Texans-Indianapolis Colts, Dallas Cowboys-Cleveland Browns and Jets-San Francisco 49ers. The first two went exactly as expected. Big plays produced points in the AFC South, and Dallas dominated Cleveland on both sides of the ball. And while the Jets’ offense struggled as expected in San Francisco, eight scoring drives for the 49ers was quite the surprise against a typically stout Jets defense. I forgot to adjust by a factor of Jordan Mason.
On listed bets: A profitable first week! We were good on sides and totals, but shakier on props. CeeDee Lamb had 58 yards on his 80-yard prop by halftime, but with the Cowboys nursing a big lead in Cleveland, he saw only shallow third-down targets the rest of the way and ended at 61 receiving yards (UNDER). Both Tony Pollard (four targets) and Rhamondre Stevenson (three targets) got the volume we were looking for in the passing game, but neither was able to pick up the requisite yardage to get home. I wouldn’t be surprised if we’re back to the well on those players at some point later this season.