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Kevin Seifert, ESPN Staff Writer
EAGAN, Minn. — Facts and evidence deny an easy label for the Minnesota Vikings’ offseason, one that has been symbolized by two seemingly incompatible decisions.
Are they in teardown mode, poised to sacrifice the 2023 season for long-term flexibility? Not really. In March, after all, the team persuaded 34-year-old safety Harrison Smith to return at a reduced salary for a 12th season, even with multiple younger players — including 2022 first-round pick Lewis Cine — in line to replace him.
Are the Vikings all in for 2023, hoping to build on a 13-win season to make a deep playoff run? That position would be hard to argue after they jettisoned Pro Bowl running back Dalvin Cook fresh off his fourth consecutive 1,000-yard season, all before he turned 28 years old, and elevated longtime backup Alexander Mattison to the starting job.
In truth, the Vikings are navigating a nuanced approach designed to do it all at once: Rebuild the roster, maximize future flexibility and keep them at least nominally competitive in the short term. The process is ambitious in its scope and slower-moving than some might hope. As it builds to a defining moment in March 2024 around a decision on quarterback Kirk Cousins’ future, the model’s ultimate viability remains in question; preseason betting markets and analytic rankings place the Vikings no closer to Super Bowl contention now than they were last year at this time even after a surprise 13-4 season.
But there is no doubt that general manager Kwesi Adofo-Mensah’s “competitive rebuild,” a term he used to mesh his own team-building philosophies with mandates from owners Zygi and Mark Wilf to field a viable team every season, accelerated this spring. When the 2023 season begins, Adofo-Mensah will have turned over 14 of the 22 starting positions he inherited from predecessor Rick Spielman after the 2021 season, all but one with a player who was 26 years old or younger at the time of the transition. The Vikings are also positioned for NFL top-10 totals in available salary cap space for 2024 and 2025, according to Roster Management System.
The approach has been praised by experienced roster builders, most notably former Philadelphia and Cleveland executive Joe Banner, but regarded in less optimistic tones by some fans and media members who view the effort as merely treading water.
“As far as future years and things like that,” coach Kevin O’Connell said, “I know that there’s a reason for everything that we want to do ultimately in the short-term and the long-term. But I do believe that my job is to coach this football team to compete every opportunity we get.”
Defensive lineman Harrison Phillips said he feels confident the team is trying to win a Super Bowl and added: “I hope that Kevin and Kwesi see themselves as earning the right to keep their jobs and be here for the long-term, and to try to win a Super Bowl each year they’re here. It’s fun to be in an organization with that mindset.”
To be clear, there have been far more notable departures than arrivals. The Vikings not only bid farewell to their 2022 leading rusher in Cook (1,173 yards), but also their 2022 leaders in tackles (Eric Kendricks, 137) and interceptions (Patrick Peterson, 5 — tied with Smith), as well as a 70-catch receiver (Adam Thielen) and 10-sack pass-rusher (Za’Darius Smith). Only one of the unrestricted free agents they signed (Mattison) received guaranteed money past the first year of their contracts, and the average age of the 16 veteran position players they added to new contracts was 26.8. Of the five players on their roster who are older than 30, three took pay cuts to return. They tabled contract discussions with a fourth, Cousins, and handed a modest extension to the fifth, long-snapper Andrew DePaola.
Based on lineup experiments during OTAs, the Vikings will have a new starter at wide receiver (K.J. Osborn), defensive end (Dean Lowry), inside linebacker (Brian Asamoah), outside linebacker (Marcus Davenport) both cornerback positions (Akayleb Evans, Andrew Booth Jr. or rookie Mekhi Blackmon) and nickel corner (Blackmon or Josh Metellus). That total could swell to seven new starters if last season’s sack leader, pass-rusher Danielle Hunter (10.5), departs amid an ongoing contract dispute.
Even so, Harrison Smith bemoaned the “weird idea” in conventional sports wisdom that suggests the departures of well-known veterans always portend lower team performance.
“Whenever guys leave that are great players and also great teammates and friends, you’re going to miss them,” Smith said. “But also on the other hand, when people leave, [people] say, ‘Well, how do we replace him?’ There’s still another person in that spot, and maybe that person is a lot better. Maybe that person isn’t. I don’t know. But it’s not like there’s an empty void. I think we think that for some reason. There’s still somebody out there. We’ve got some guys. We’ll see what we do.”
Yes, the delicate balance of a competitive rebuild depends on significant contributions from unproven players. In many ways, however, the hardest part for the Vikings is yet to come.
Cousins will play out the final year of his contract this season without having an obvious heir on the roster, meaning the Vikings will have to make a franchise-defining decision next spring. Assuming he doesn’t do it in 2023, do they think Cousins can pilot them to a Super Bowl in 2024 or 2025? He’ll be 36 and 37 years old in those seasons. Or do they need to start over at the game’s most important position?
The bulk of the rebuild will be rendered inert if they answer that question incorrectly, or if they make the right call but fail in the tricky work of acquiring a credible replacement.