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Kevin Seifert, ESPN Staff Writer
EAGAN, Minn. — In an alternate universe, the Minnesota Vikings are spending their bye week deciding whether the timing is right to promote rookie quarterback J.J. McCarthy to the starting role. Here in the real world, of course, the No. 10 draft pick is on injured reserve and the Vikings’ starting quarterback — Sam Darnold — has garnered some early MVP support.
Darnold and the Vikings are the NFL’s biggest surprise this season, and one of the most unexpected stories in recent memory. Dismissed externally following McCarthy’s preseason knee injury, the Vikings are 5-0 and nearing ESPN’s FPI projection for their season win total (6.8). Darnold has played the best football of his seven-year career, rookie placekicker Will Reichard has been perfect, and the Vikings’ not only have the league’s best defense, but it has produced one of the best five-game starts in modern NFL history.
It has all come against the NFL’s sixth-most difficult schedule, according to FPI, yet the Vikings have dominated so thoroughly they’ve trailed for only 3 minutes, 26 seconds of game time. That’s the fifth-lowest total through five games in the Super Bowl era. All five of those teams advanced to the Super Bowl that season. Three of them won the championship.
The Vikings have trailed for 3 minutes, 26 seconds this season. Per ESPN Research, that puts them in the highest of company. Only 4 teams since the 1970 merger have trailed for less time in Games 1-5. All went to the Super Bowl, as did the team with the next-best mark. Details: pic.twitter.com/QGoH8vUc9i
— Kevin Seifert (@SeifertESPN) October 7, 2024
As the team devotes its bye week to fine-tuning, polishing and enhancing its start — rather than mulling McCarthy’s immediate future — here are five unexpected developments that have added up to one big surprise.
Sam Darnold’s poise
The history is worth repeating on Darnold, who signed a one-year contract worth $10 million in March to serve as McCarthy’s placeholder. He has the lowest Total Quarterback Rating (42) among the 26 NFL quarterbacks who started at least 50 games between 2018 and 2023.
Given that background, it’s wild to see Darnold in the top half of the NFL’s 2024 QBR rankings (No. 14, 58.2) — even after his worst game of the season in the Vikings’ 23-17 victory over the New York Jets Sunday. Darnold is tied for second with 11 touchdown passes and has used his big arm to push the ball downfield often enough to rank No. 6 in air yards per attempt (8.8).
He has been far from perfect, leading the NFL with five fumbles (two lost) and committing six total turnovers, tied for third-most in the league. But his biggest contribution has been his poise during key fourth-quarter moments that have decided a trio of close games, a clear sign of progress from a player who had a reputation early in his career for getting rattled.
For example, in Week 2 against the San Francisco 49ers, Darnold pinpointed a 28-yard back-shoulder pass to receiver Jalen Nailor to convert a third down that eventually led to a critical field goal. In Week 4 against the Green Bay Packers, he threw passes of 27 and 17 yards to receiver Justin Jefferson during another drive that helped finish off a 31-29 victory. And against the Jets, Darnold found Jefferson for 25 yards and tight end Johnny Mundt for another 20 on a drive that extended a slim lead.
“That’s what Sam’s been,” coach Kevin O’Connell said, “dealing with adversity when his team needed him and [making] some plays there that gave us a better opportunity to go win.”
Defense’s historically good start
It was reasonable to expect strong defensive play from the Vikings, who added four high-profile free agent starters — linebackers Jonathan Greenard, Andrew Van Ginkel and Blake Cashman, along with cornerback Stephon Gilmore — to a core that had already spent a season with defensive coordinator Brian Flores. But their defensive DVOA of 37.1% — a metric that compares success on each play to the league average based on down and distance with adjustments for situations and opponents — is more than twice that of the next-best team, and it’s sixth best for any defense through five games since 1979.
Where the #Vikings rank among the top defenses measured by DVOA through 5 games. #Skol pic.twitter.com/K9FQYE6cbg
— Aaron Schatz 🏈 (@ASchatzNFL) October 7, 2024
The dominance has spread across the board. The Vikings have forced 13 turnovers, second best in the NFL, including two interceptions returned for touchdowns by Van Ginkel. They rank second in sacks (20) and yards allowed per rush (3.6), and fourth in points allowed (15.2).
Van Ginkel and Gilmore had previously played for Flores, and that helped the Vikings open the season without many growing pains. A signature part of Flores’ scheme is creating pre-snap confusion and, as ESPN’s Bill Barnwell has noted, the Vikings have had at least one defender back away from the line of scrimmage at the snap 48.5% of the time — by far the highest rate in the league. Through five weeks of the 2023 season, Flores’ first in Minnesota, that rate was 39.3%, according to NFL Next Gen Stats.
Flores’ scheme has so thoroughly confused opponents that he’s been able to lead the NFL in blitz rate on first and second downs (46.7%) and then pull back on third down (28.1%, No. 19) with great success. On those key third downs, Flores has often used three or four edge rushers to comprise his defensive line. Backup linebacker Jihad Ward, for instance, has lined up as an interior lineman on 85 snaps this season.
And here’s a warning to future opponents: Speaking earlier this week, O’Connell hinted that Flores hasn’t yet emptied his playbook.
“What I’m most excited about is I think that there’s so much more there as we continue to move throughout this season and face the type of challenges you’re going to face on our schedule,” O’Connell said. “That’s where I’m really going to look for constant improvement, constant comfort within the scheme from our players, and Flo and his staff doing it at such a high level has been a huge thing for our organization.”
Wildly productive free agent class
Teams that use free agency to compensate for unproductive drafts are rarely rewarded like the 2024 Vikings. General manager Kwesi Adofo-Mensah signed 12 key unrestricted free agents, not counting the incumbent players they re-signed, and almost all of them have found ways to contribute to the 5-0 start.
At the top of the list are Darnold and running back Aaron Jones, who ranks seventh in the NFL with 517 yards from scrimmage but might miss some time after the bye because of a right hip injury. Greenard has four sacks, Van Ginkel has three to go along with his interceptions, and Cashman leads the team with tackles (40). Gilmore’s interception of Jets quarterback Aaron Rodgers sealed that victory, linebacker Kamu Grugier-Hill recorded two interceptions while filling in for injured starter Ivan Pace Jr., and Ward had a key fumble recovery against the 49ers.
Cornerback Shaquill Griffin’s interception in Week 4 against the Packers set up a Vikings touchdown, and defensive lineman Jerry Tillery has knocked down two passes while starting all five games.
It’s hard to imagine where the Vikings would be without such a robust class because they’ve gotten starts from only three players drafted during Adofo-Mensah’s three-year tenure: guard Ed Ingram, receiver Jordan Addison and receiver Jalen Nailor. According to ESPN Research, that’s the lowest total in the NFL over that period.
There were plenty of reasons to fret about the tight end’s ongoing recovery from a torn ACL and MCL in his right knee that was sustained Dec. 24. He has been central to the Vikings’ offense since arriving midway through the 2022 season, after which the Vikings recorded more tight end targets than every NFL team except the Kansas City Chiefs, who have Travis Kelce.
With Hockenson set to spend the early part of the 2024 season on the Physically Unable to Perform list (PUP), O’Connell realigned his offense. Mundt and fellow backup tight end Josh Oliver have each caught a touchdown pass from Darnold, but overall, the Vikings have the NFL’s third-fewest tight end targets (18).
Among other things, the Vikings have made up for those targets by calling 31% more runs for running backs (118) through five games than they did last season over the same time period (82). So even with Hockenson sidelined, their offense ranks No. 8 in the NFL in scoring (25.0 PPG) and No. 10 in offensive efficiency (56.2). Each is the best mark through five games during O’Connell’s tenure.
Hockenson is due to return no later than Week 9 against the Indianapolis Colts, and it’s fair to expect another realignment at that point.
“I’ve been very, very excited about the possibility of getting T.J.’s skill set back in our offense,” O’Connell said, “and it will be something that I think should be a real positive for us.”
Will Reichard’s perfection
Reichard has proved to be an exception to the long history of rookie NFL place-kickers. A sixth-round draft pick this spring, Reichard has converted all nine of his field goal attempts, including three from beyond 50 yards, and each of his 16 extra points.
According to Pro Football Reference, that makes him one of three rookie kickers in NFL history who have maintained a perfect conversion rate while appearing in at least five games.
The Vikings have more to learn here about their young kicker, especially in potentially bad weather games during Week 12 at Chicago’s Soldier Field and Week 16 at Seattle’s Lumen Field. But to this point, Reichard has far outperformed historic projections for players in his position.