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Seth Walder, ESPN Analytics
If I’m placing bets on a Sunday, I’m not looking at full game spreads or totals. Those are efficient markets that have been bet into all week. Instead, I’m looking for the obscure. It’s my specialty, anyway. It’s what I build statistical models around to try to find an edge. If there’s an advantage to be found now, it’s in small markets.
So come along for the ride and see how we fare diving deep into Sunday props. Results from last week are at the bottom of the story.
Odds by ESPN BET.
Sacks
Trey Hendrickson (CIN) under 0.5 sacks (+125)
Patrick Mahomes is coming off a game in which he took four sacks at the hands of the Raiders, yes. But he is still one of the absolute greatest quarterbacks at avoiding sacks, and I’m going to need to see many more bad games before I move off of that belief. After all, he still has the second-lowest sack rate (3.9%) among qualifying quarterbacks this year. My model makes Hendrickson -150 to go under — a huge disagreement with the line.
Fletcher Cox (PHI) under 0.5 sacks (-132)
I almost can’t believe this line, especially in the context of teammate Josh Sweat being -175 under 0.5 sacks despite being an edge rusher with more sacks than Cox this season. Cox is on a hot streak — he has 3.5 sacks in his past four games — and I’m sure that’s what’s driving this price. But we’re still talking about a 33-year-old defensive tackle who has a 9% pass rush win rate (a shade below average) this season. I make the number -275.
See also:
Greg Rousseau (BUF) under 0.5 sacks (-150)
Ed Oliver (BUF) under 0.5 sacks (-115)
Justin Madubuike (BAL) under 0.5 sacks (-190)
Sam Hubbard (CIN) under 0.5 sacks (-175)
Tackles
Note that some bets are tackles + assists and others are just tackles or assists.
Pete Werner (NO) over 5.5 tackles + assists (-125)
The Bucs lean run-heavy, and that plays right into the hands of the over since almost all linebackers record tackles at a higher rate on running plays than passing plays. Werner’s playing time dipped after he missed Week 13 with shoulder and oblique injuries but ramped up to 87% of defensive snaps last week. My model projects 6.7 tackles + assists for the linebacker.
Alohi Gilman (LAC) over 4.5 tackles + assists (+110)
Gilman has gone over this line in seven of 12 games this year, and I like this plus-money situation for him to go over again. The Chargers are underdogs and are playing against Jarrett Stidham in his first start. Put those two factors together and that should lead to more runs than usual from the Broncos. Even safeties like Gilman record tackles at a higher rate on running plays, so this works in the over’s favor. I project 5.8 tackles + assists.
See also:
Jason Pinnock (NYG) over 3.5 solo tackles (+135)
Budda Baker (ARI) under 7.5 tackles + assists (+110)
Nate Hobbs (LV) over 1.5 assisted tackles (+115)
Alex Singleton (DEN) under 10.5 tackles + assists (-125)
Justin Simmons (DEN) over 4.5 tackles + assists (-115)
Asante Samuel Jr. (LAC) over 2.5 tackles + assists (-120)
Passing completions
Dak Prescott under 24.5 completions (+100)
It’s a prime-time game between two NFC heavyweights. But make no mistake, Dallas is a clear favorite here with a 5.5-point spread. That will lend itself to a run-heavier game plan for the Cowboys. Prescott is a very accurate quarterback, but he’s also plagued by a receiver group with a 5.6% drop rate — second-highest among QBR qualifiers. I forecast 22.9 completions for Prescott.
Pass attempts
Justin Fields over 26.5 pass attempts (-125)
The Bears are one of the run-heaviest teams in the league and are slight favorites, hence this very low line. But the Falcons rank first in terms of lowest EPA allowed per designed carry, so that certainly encourages opponents to pass more frequently than they otherwise might. I project 28.4 pass attempts for Fields.
Interceptions
Jarrett Stidham under 0.5 interceptions (+115)
We’re dealing with a pretty large unknown here in Stidham’s first start of the season, but many of the factors we do know work in the under’s favor. The Broncos are favored; the Chargers’ defense is bad; and Sean Payton dramatically lowered Russell Wilson’s air yards per attempt and thus is likely to keep Stidham’s low, too. At this price, I think it’s worth it. I make the fair price -107.
Receptions
Jahmyr Gibbs under 3.5 receptions (-110)
Our receptions winning streak continued last week8 and we’re now 8-2 and up 4.9 units on 10 bets in the category, so I see no reason to deviate from our thesis. If you’re new here, the philosophy the entire time has been to fade running backs against super man-heavy teams. More than anyone else, that’s the Cowboys, who run man 63% of the time.
See also:
David Montgomery under 1.5 receptions (-115)
Results
Last week
QB interceptions: 1-0 (+1.5 units)
Pass completions: 1-1 (-0.2 units)
Pass attempts: 1-0 (+0.9 units)
Receptions: 2-0 (+1.4 units)
Sacks: 6-2 (+3.1 units)
Tackles: 3-3 (-0.2 units)
Overall: 14-6 (+6.5 units)
2023 Season
QB interceptions: 17-22 (-1.5 units)
Pass completions: 8-8 (-0.7 units)
Pass attempts: 9-9 (-2.1 units)
Receptions: 8-2 (+4.9 units)
Sacks: 79-55-7 (+20.3 units)
Tackles: 64-54-1 (+8.7 units)
Defensive interceptions: 0-3 (-3.0 units)
D/ST touchdowns: 2-19 (-3.5 units)
Teasers: 2-2 (+0.4 units)
Weekly specials: 0-3 (-3.0 units)
Game props: 0-2 (-2.0 units)
Overall: 189-179-8 (+18.5 units)