ESPN NFL analysts are grading every big 2024 NFL signing and trade of the offseason, putting each deal into perspective for teams and players.
To determine each grade, our experts are evaluating moves based on multiple factors, including on-field impact, salary cap implications, draft compensation, player’s age and what they add, and the context of a team’s short-term and long-term outlook. How large is the effect of this decision, and how sure are we it’s a good or bad choice? How does this affect a team’s chance to win the Super Bowl, this season or in the future?
Our experts also tell you how the biggest signings and trades impact April’s NFL draft. What do the top deals mean for that team’s first-round outlook, and how do they impact where the top prospects might be selected? Taking into account team needs, positional value on draft boards and what they’re hearing from around the NFL, they break down what it all means.
Follow along as our experts evaluate and grade each move, with the most recent grades at the top.
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coverage:
Top 100 free agents | Bold moves
RB/LB tiers | QB/OL/TE tiers | WR/DB tiers
Texans keep TE Dalton Schultz with extension
The deal: Three years, $36 million with $23.5 guaranteed
Grade: B+
Keeping a strong collection of skill players around quarterback C.J. Stroud is a great way to build a winning team, and the Texans prioritized his favorite middle-of-the-field target. Schultz, who will be 28 in July, is fresh off a resurgent season in which he caught 59 passes for 635 yards and five touchdowns during his first season in Houston.
Schultz, the best tight end on the market this offseason, is a quick-hit playmaker off play-action. With both the free agent crop and the draft class thin at tight end, the Texans make the smart move to lock up one of Stroud’s favorite targets before having to spend valuable draft capital on a replacement; I only have two tight ends in draft carrying starter-level grades.
With limited needs offensively — running back remains a hole to fill — and a quarterback only one year into his rookie contract, Houston can and should be aggressive to keep talent around Stroud and to keep players with whom he has a clear connection. Schultz is both of those while offering a steady, veteran presence in a young locker room.
For every free agent signing, I look at the players and draft capital required to replace the player if he walked. The Texans would have to use pick No. 24 overall in Round 1 to replace Schultz’s value as a receiver and in-line target. Now the front office is free to use that pick shoring up the defensive line or secondary while keeping its No. 2 receiver locked up.– Matt Miller
Bucs bring back WR Mike Evans with two-year deal
The deal: Two years, up to $52 million, with $35 million guaranteed
Grade: B-
The Buccaneers’ biggest need heading into the new league year is quarterback, where Baker Mayfield is set to hit free agency. The team’s second-biggest need was at wide receiver, with Evans — a future Hall of Famer — scheduled to hit the open market after last signing an extension with Tampa Bay in 2018. Bringing Evans back on a two-year deal allows the Bucs to shift focus to retaining Mayfield.
Evans, entering his age-31 season, is coming off another brilliant campaign. In 2023, he grabbed 79 passes for 1,255 yards and 13 touchdowns while extending his streak of 1,000-yard seasons to 10 and posting his best year since 2018 in terms of yards and catches. A true WR1, Evans helped propel the Bucs to a surprise NFC South title and a playoff victory over the Eagles in a resurgent season for Mayfield and the Tampa offense.
But does that mean this was a good signing? The Bucs are clearly attempting to load up for another run through a weak division. Evans is an all-time franchise great and still a very good wide receiver, even at his age, because his game is predicated on size more than speed. However, paying $52 million for a wide receiver over 30 has more feeling of sentimentality than of true team-building — especially when fellow wideout Chris Godwin has a cap hit of $27.5 million.
With an expanding salary cap in the modern NFL, it’s possible to pay two receivers big money, and replacing a legend isn’t easy, but considering that the 2024 draft class is loaded at the position, a “run-it-back” mentality might be a dangerous one for the Bucs. Tampa Bay could have instead used this opportunity to get cap healthy and add a younger go-to target opposite Godwin. And so this is very much a boom-or-bust signing at this dollar amount, even if we’re happy to see Evans get the kind of per-year money his résumé suggests he should.
The key to making this signing work is now re-signing Mayfield or going after another starting quarterback who has similar immediate impact. The Bucs are all-in on 2024 with this deal and must make sure Evans has a reliable quarterback getting him the ball. So although it might seem harsh given that Evans is one of the top available free agents, this gets a B-minus. Keeping a legend in your home uniform is fun for the fans, but the pressure is now on Tampa Bay to get it right at quarterback. — Miller