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NFL Nation, ESPN
The Atlanta Falcons, New Orleans Saints and Tampa Bay Buccaneers were locked in a three-way tie for the NFC South entering Sunday’s games when the one-win Carolina Panthers decided to crash the division party.
The Bucs and Saints, who secured wins over the Green Bay Packers and New York Giants, respectively, remain tied for the division lead at 7-7 and took a one-game lead over the Falcons.
The Falcons’ hopes to win the division title — and a wild-card berth — took a hit heading after the loss to the league-worst Panthers, while the Saints and Bucs both control their own destinies.
With three weeks remaining, let’s take a look at each team’s path to an NFC South title.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-7)
Remaining schedule: vs. Jacksonville Jaguars, vs. New Orleans Saints, at Carolina Panthers
Chances of winning the division: 58.3%
Chances of making the playoffs: 68.9%
What scenario needs to happen to make the playoffs: The most ideal scenario would be to win out, which would secure the division, or finish out 2-1. They could also lose to the Panthers and Jaguars and still get in by beating the Saints, who they have already beaten. A unique wrinkle though is that two of these three remaining games are at home, but they’ve been a better road team.
What’s the key to make the playoffs: Consistency. Quarterback Baker Mayfield went from completing 48.3% of his passes in Week 14 against the Falcons to 78.6% against the Packers in Week 15. They’ve found a ground game with Rachaad White, and receiver Chris Godwin is picking up momentum. They’ve had a revolving door on defense because of injuries, but they need to keep their stout play in the red zone, where they’ve been one of the league’s best this season. — Jenna Laine
New Orleans Saints (7-7)
Remaining schedule: at Los Angeles Rams, at Tampa Bay Buccaneers, vs. Atlanta Falcons
Chances of winning the division: 33.4%
Chances of making the playoffs: 44.3%
What scenario needs to happen to make the playoffs: There are scenarios where the Saints lose to the Rams and still win the division at 9-8. The No. 6 and No. 7 seeds are still in play as well as a wild-card. All hope won’t be lost if they don’t win out, but winning out would mean they control their own destiny to clinch the division. The Saints have two division games remaining and need to win those after losing to the Falcons and Buccaneers earlier in the season.
What’s the key to make the playoffs: Quarterback Derek Carr needs to build off his three-touchdown game against the Giants in Week 14 and find ways to get the team in the end zone. Red zone issues have been one of their biggest inconsistencies this year. Defensively, the Saints need to continue to figure out how to get their pass rush going after two solid games and continue to force turnovers, which has been one of their strengths. — Katherine Terrell
Remaining schedule: vs Indianapolis Colts, at Chicago Bears, at New Orleans Saints Chances of winning the division: 9.4% Chances of making the playoffs: 11.4% What scenario needs to happen for the Falcons to make the playoffs: It’s pretty simple at this point. Win out. The Falcons sit a game back in the NFC South and if Tampa Bay beats New Orleans and Carolina, the Falcons would not have the divisional tiebreaker against the Buccaneers due to division record (Tampa would be 5-1, Atlanta 4-2). Winning out would also mean getting to 9-8 overall, 6-6 in the NFC and 4-2 in the division, securing tiebreakers over the Saints and Bears in the process. Are there other, more convoluted ways? Potentially, as seven teams sit at 7-7 or 6-8 with the NFC South title and two wild-card spots open, but winning out would provide the easiest path (and even then, it might not be a guarantee). What’s the key to make the playoffs: Finding consistency, which the Falcons haven’t had under coach Arthur Smith in three seasons. If Atlanta were to win out, it would be the first three-game win streak in a season under Smith. There are bursts where the Falcons look like a good team — particularly defensively, where Atlanta ranks in the top 10 in many categories — but end-game defensive lapses and the offense’s inability to stop turning the ball over have put Atlanta in this situation. To help curb this, Atlanta has (again) made a quarterback change, going back to Taylor Heinicke over Desmond Ridder, who has 16 turnovers this season and has now been benched for the second time in 2023. — Michael RothsteinAtlanta Falcons (6-8)