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Mike Clay, ESPN Senior Writer
Welcome to the Fantasy Football Playbook for Week 12, which kicked off Thursday with the Steelers at the Browns.
This column features score projections, over/unders, win probabilities, and, of course, easily digestible fantasy advice for season-long leagues and DFS. This guide should help you with all sorts of decision-making, including sit/start decisions, last-minute waiver adds and lineup choices.
The advice is centered on 12-team PPR leagues with relatively standard scoring and lineup settings (1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 flex, 1 K, 1 D/ST), although I’ll often mention “shallow” or “deep” leagues for some starters. The charts show all players who have been projected for at least 6.0 fantasy points this week, as well as all D/STs. “Matchup” is automatically determined using a proprietary metric that factors in raw and volume-adjusted fantasy points allowed to each position by the opposing defense this season.
(Editor’s note: Projections and rankings will align almost perfectly, but sometimes when a projection is close, a player might be ranked slightly higher or lower because of other factors, including upside or risk. This column is subject to updates during the weekend, although at the very minimum, rankings will be updated on the site and projections will always be updated inside the game leading up to kickoff.)
Jump to:
KC-CAR | MIN-CHI | TEN-HOU | DET-IND | NE-MIA | TB-NYG
DAL-WAS | DEN-LV | SF-GB | ARI-SEA | PHI-LAR | BAL-LAC
Projected Score: Vikings 20, Bears 18
Lineup locks: Aaron Jones, D’Andre Swift, Justin Jefferson, DJ Moore
T.J. Hockenson appeared to be solidly back in the TE1 mix after posting an 8-72-0 receiving line on nine targets in Week 10. However, he regressed to just 13 yards on three targets in Week 11 and continues to play a limited role. Hockenson has played on 45-46% of snaps in all three games since his return and, after solid 67% route participation in Week 10, he dipped to 49% last week. Better days are ahead for Hockenson, but the step back last week and a tough matchup against a Chicago defense that hasn’t allowed any TE catching scores since Week 1 suggests he’s more of a fringe TE1 than a “lineup lock.”
Over/Under: 37.9 (11th highest)
Win Probability: Vikings 57% (12th highest)