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Liz Loza, ESPN
Savoring the moment and staying present are surely keys to happy living. .. but this is fantasy football.
Time is of the essence (even in mid-July). The line between patience and complacency is razor-thin for fans of the virtual game. We — much like our real-life counterparts — are on a constant quest for the next big thing.
It’s time to survey the up-and-coming landscape. From high pedigree prospects to overlooked undrafted free agents, there are an exciting number of players whose situations hint at breakout potential. The majority of which, save one buzzy tight end, are being selected in the second half of 12-team leagues, making the cost-benefit analysis absolutely tantalizing.
Daniels is a dual-threat talent who has a skill set ideal for the modern NFL. During his record-breaking season at LSU, the 23-year-old led the FBS in both yards per pass (11.66) and yards per rush (8.4). With a playing style similar to Kyler Murray’s, Daniels is a keen fit for Kliff Kingsbury’s offense. Expect the Commanders’ new OC to employ plenty of spread passing elements, which should help the 23-year-old’s transition to the pros. And, as a reminder, the aforementioned Murray didn’t only post top-five rushing stats, but also cleared 3,700 passing yards in every healthy season with Kingsbury in Arizona.
The rookie has been additionally blessed with a stable of solid pass-catching options. Leading the corps is Terry McLaurin, who, despite playing without a star quarterbacks in his year in Washington, has miraculously managed to go over 1,000 receiving yards in four straight campaigns. Jahan Dotson, who struggled to mesh with Sam Howell and Eric Bieniemy’s scheme, remains a sticky-mitted three-level threat with first-round pedigree. Rounding out the trio is first-year man, Luke McCaffrey, who has the YAC ability (and bloodlines) to develop into a fine slot-based complement.
Throw in a solid run game (featuring the pass-catching talents of Austin Ekeler) that promises to help Daniels establish a rhythm, and the former Tiger is set up for success. Washington’s offensive line and strength of schedule are sizable obstacles for Daniels, but his arm strength in combination with elite rushing instincts make him a high-ceiling QB2 available in the early double-digit rounds of fantasy drafts.
Warren was but a whisper behind Pittsburgh’s presumptive RB1 heading into last fall. Shortly after the Steelers’ bye, however, Warren made his presence known, registering 14 touches per contest between Weeks 9 and 18. The Oklahoma State product averaged 13 PPR points per game during that time, finishing as fantasy’s overall RB22 in 2023. Prioritized on passing downs (27.3% team target share, RB3) and in space-friendly circumstances, Warren shined as the team’s most explosive rusher, regularly evading tackles (67, RB5) and logging 5.5 yards per touch (RB7)
With Arthur Smith designing the offense, Pittsburgh figures to employ a run-heavy approach, which bodes well for both Najee Harris and Warren. Harris’ power and impressive ability to absorb constant contact makes the former Bama back a valuable asset in real life, but Warren’s hands and superior efficiency provide him with the superior fantasy profile. Currently the 25th running back coming off the board, Warren is being selected behind where he finished last year. Given the upgrade in QB and the change in offensive philosophy, he’s a lock for (at least) RB2 fantasy production in PPR-friendly formats.
Spears tormented would-be defenders with deliciously dizzying change-of-direction skills, recording a top-five juke rate (26.3%) and evading 40 tackles (RB23) on just 152 touches in 2023. Working as a complement to Derrick Henry, Spears thrived in space, registering 8.3 yards per rush outside the tackles (RB2) while also flashing as a receiver, converting 52 of 70 looks (RB9 in both categories). The Tulane product was by no means the team’s primary ball carrier, but is worth noting that he regularly out-snapped Henry, managing just five fewer snaps on the season.
Tennessee is in the throes of a rebrand, but Spears appears to be a significant part of the new look Titans. The team added Tony Pollard but eschewed the draft on the heels of Henry’s departure. Given Pollard’s underwhelming campaign in Dallas and noting the limitations of Spears’ stature, it’s likely the duo will be equitably deployed. Numerous coaches on staff (from HC Brian Callahan to OC Nick Holz to RBs Coach Randy Jordan) have hinted as much, regularly praising both backs’ upside as pass catchers and remarking on their ability to be “interchangeable.”
Assuming a near 50-50 split (probably more carries for Pollard, but an increase in grabs for Spears), Spears projects to be the better fantasy target. The second-year player is being drafted behind Pollard, making Spears the more appealing (and explosive) value. A high-upside selection available in the ninth round of 12-person leagues, Spears is a fantastic pick for anchor and zero-RB enthusiasts.
Johnson should probably be categorized as a player with comeback — rather than breakout — potential. Still, it’s been two years since his 107-1161-8 campaign, allowing the former Steeler to reinvent and reintroduce himself to the fantasy community. Johnson suffered from poor quarterback play and, maybe even worse, was misused in Matt Canada’s scheme over his last pair of seasons. The emergence of George Pickens on the outside forced Johnson to move around the formation, pushing him into the slot at the highest rate (20.2%) of his career last year. That move at least partially explains his forgettable numbers, which were the lowest since his rookie effort.
Johnson isn’t a perfect receiver. He certainly has a penchant for making maddening mistakes. However, he’s still one of the best separators in the game. Likely to work as the Panthers’ X-receiver (with Adam Thielen in the slot and Xavier Legette rounding out the trio) Johnson figures to resume a role that best fits his skill set and affords him opportunities in the triple digits. The jury is still out on Bryce Young, but new coach David Canales has a reputation for being a “QB whisperer,” having revitalized the careers of Geno Smith and Baker Mayfield. Currently the 38th wide receiver off draft boards, Johnson is in a position succeed in Carolina.
An undrafted free agent out of Weber State, Shaheed flashed down the stretch of his rookie campaign, surprising with a YPR of 17.1 from Weeks 12 through 18 of 2022. Those numbers earned the return man a promotion, as he became the Saints No. 3 WR in 2023. Working primarily at the team’s deep threat, Shaheed’s totals were frustratingly boom-or-bust, particularly over the first nine weeks of the season. After Michael Thomas (knee) was sidelined, however, Shaheed became more integrated into the offense, receiving a wider variety of opportunities and an increased number of looks (5.6 targets per contest, up from 4.5 per game when Thomas was on the field).
That’s a trend that figures to continue this go-round. Thomas’ exit frees up over 60 targets and elevates Shaheed to the No. 2 WR spot. New OC Klint Kubiak (who spent last year as the 49ers passing game coordinator) figures to bring pace and efficiency to the offense. That means more shots for Shaheed to get loose and showcase his field-stretching talents. Currently being drafted outside of the top-50 players at the position (behind vets like Mike Williams and rookies like Brian Thomas Jr.), Shaheed profiles as a low-risk bench option likely to improve on his WR40 fantasy numbers from the previous year.
Kincaid wasn’t LaPorta-esque in his production, but the Utah alum (gently) bucked against the “rookie tight ends can’t produce” narrative in 2023. Drafted to be Buffalo’s flex tight end, Kincaid caught steam a third of the way through the regular season, eventually emerging as the Bills second-most targeted player.
A smooth route runner with soft hands and after the catch ability, the 24-year-old gained fantasy favor during the time in which Dawson Knox (wrist) was sidelined from Weeks 8-12. Kincaid averaged over 6 catches, 56 yards and 13 PPR fantasy points per game over that span. His opportunities dipped slightly after Knox returned, dropping from 7.6 targets per contest from Weeks 8-13 to 5.8 looks per effort from Weeks 14-18. However, Kincaid’s routes-run remained static (26 per game) while Knox’s dropped significantly (23 per game from Weeks 1-7 to 10 per game from Weeks 14-18). Despite the shift in Kincaid’s targets, it’s worth noting that they became more valuable after Joe Brady took over for Ken Dorsey in Week 10. Not only did Kincaid’s air yards per target increase (to 7.7 from 4.24), but so did his number of grabs over 20 yards (12.1%).
Kincaid is clearly the team’s preferred pass-catching option. He figures to remain heavily involved in his second campaign, especially considering the departures of Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis, who combined for 240 targets in 2023. With plenty of question marks surrounding the team’s receiving corps, Kincaid could flirt with 100 looks. He’s currently the sixth TE coming off draft boards (just behind George Kittle and ahead of Evan Engram), and could easily squeeze into the top five, assuming a likely uptick in red zone usage.
Follow Liz on social: @LizLoza_FF