Connecting dots: Why Kirk Cousins is likely leaving Vikings

If history is a reliable guide, Kirk Cousins is down to his final days as the Minnesota Vikings’ quarterback.

It’s not difficult to connect the dots of conventional wisdom at this point, and the only realistic factor to the contrary is the possibility — however remote it might be — that Cousins will make the type of decision he has never made before.

The first dot is in the renegotiated contract Cousins signed last spring, one that voids March 13. The details of the contract effectively mean that if the Vikings are going to re-sign him for 2024, they’ll need to do it before the free agent market opens next Wednesday. If they were to try to sign him after that point, his 2024 salary cap number would include a $28.5 million dead money overlay.

Getting Cousins signed before March 13 might have been a possibility if there were no obvious suitors around the league. But the second dot emerged during last week’s NFL scouting combine. According to ESPN’s Dan Graziano, and many others, the Atlanta Falcons have made Cousins their top target if he reaches the open market. The Falcons, of course, can’t formally sign him until after the deal voids.

That brings us to the third dot to connect. At every step of his career, Cousins has made the decision to maximize — or nearly maximize — his contractual return. His single-minded pursuit has delivered $230 million in earnings since he became a full-time starting quarterback in 2015, a period during which he has made three playoff appearances and compiled a 1-3 postseason record.

No matter what the Vikings might offer him prior to March 13, would it be enough to convince him to not explore the Falcons’ option or hear out any other team that might be interested?

Not even Vikings coach Kevin O’Connell thinks that will be the case. In a revealing interview last weekend on NFL Network, O’Connell made clear that Cousins will have suitors and that he will almost certainly entertain them.

“The combine just gave everybody else an opportunity, whether they’re supposed to be or not, to maybe have some conversations,” O’Connell said. “But I’ve been having the dialogue that you have with a player like Kirk Cousins; the relationship we’ve built up over a long period of time. I know Kirk, where he’s at in this whole process. He’s earned the right to be a free agent. He’s played really good football. I think he’s [17-8] since I arrived in Minnesota coaching him. I’ve had a blast coaching him, his fit in the offense, where we’ve taken our version of the offense to with guys like Jordan [Addison] and Justin [Jefferson] and T.J. [Hockenson].

“I know Kirk is going to go through a full process. He’s a process guy. Hopefully we continue to be a strong part in that process and we figure out a way to keep him a Minnesota Viking. My expectation is that we aren’t going to be the only ones that want Kirk Cousins to be the quarterback of our team in 2024.”

O’Connell’s response acknowledged a realistic assessment of how Cousins is likely to approach the next few weeks, but it also revealed the selling point he almost certainly has already made to Cousins himself: The Vikings could very well represent his best chance of success in the coming years, with a coaching staff he has connected with and an array of dynamic weapons.

Would Cousins view it the same way? He reiterated in January that he hoped to finish his career in Minnesota and even went so far as to say: “At this stage in my career, the dollars are really not what it’s about.”

He did, however, imply that he wants an offer to match his desire to finish out his career; he’ll be 36 in August and hopes to play for several more years. While the dollars might not be “what it’s about,” he said, “it is about what the dollars represent.”

The cleanest way for the Vikings to represent their commitment to Cousins is to fully guarantee multiple years of their offer. And that’s where the fourth dot comes in.

Like O’Connell, general manager Kwesi Adofo-Mensah has said he wants Cousins back for 2024. But Adofo-Mensah has spoken in more nuanced terms about how that might happen, as might be expected from a general manager who is required to apply a long-term vision.

“We have our interests,” Adofo-Mensah said. “He has his. We’ll get to the table to see if we can figure out a creative solution and kind of meet in the middle. That’s what every contract negotiation is. And that’s what it’ll be with him.”

It would be perfectly reasonable for a general manager to be hesitant about handing out multiple guaranteed years to a quarterback who will be 36 next season and is recovering from a torn right Achilles, especially at a time when the floor for established starting quarterbacks is $40 million annually. But it leaves open a clear path for Cousins to seek better offers. If the Vikings try to sign him after he reaches the market, they would have to overlay his new contract on the $28.5 million dead money figure, creating what would seem to be a prohibitive cap figure for 2024.

A strong argument could be made for parting ways with an aging quarterback who is working his way back from the first major injury of his career. Bidding farewell to Cousins would free the Vikings from the six-year strain of having his deal on their books, but it would also expose their lack of a succession plan and raise the very real possibility that he will be replaced by someone who performs worse than he will in Atlanta or elsewhere in the coming seasons.

The timing of Cousins’ departure would coincide with a strong draft class of quarterbacks, but with the No. 11 overall pick, the Vikings almost certainly would need a trade up — and sacrifice future draft picks — to select one from the top tier of Caleb Williams, Jayden Daniels and Drake Maye. That would leave them to compete for the next tier that includes Michigan’s J.J. McCarthy, Washington’s Michael Penix Jr. and Oregon’s Bo Nix. A free agent bridge starter such as Sam Darnold could also enter the equation. Longer-term possibilities could include Justin Fields, Russell Wilson or Ryan Tannehill.

Once hypothetical, those options now appear to be the likeliest path for the Vikings. Barring an out-of-character decision from Cousins, they will soon have no choice but to move to Plan B.