Everything that happens in sports has some additional context when viewed from a sports betting perspective. From season-changing injuries to record-setting moments and so much more, the sports news cycle will constantly and significantly affect the sports betting industry.
Our betting buzz file, with contributions from David Purdum, Doug Greenberg and others, aims to provide fans with a look at the sports betting stories that are driving the conversation.
Key links: Sports betting home | NFL odds page | College football odds page | ESPN BET
Aug. 6: Patriots face worst futures odds in Robert Kraft era
Doug Greenberg: Gone are the days when the Bill Belichick-led New England Patriots were betting favorites to contend for the Super Bowl at the beginning of every season. With new head coach Jerod Mayo and franchise quarterback of the future Drake Maye as the main characters of a rebuild, the Pats are seeing their worst preseason future odds in over three decades.
The Patriots are listed at 250-1 to win the Super Bowl at ESPN BET and have a regular season win total of 4.5 (juiced to the over at -150), both the lowest since the pre-Robert Kraft era in 1991 when they were 500-1 with a win total of 4.
DraftKings has individual game lines for all of New England’s games this upcoming season and the Pats are not favored in a single one. Should that hold, it would mark the first time in franchise history that the team was not favored in any game.
Line movement has not been working for the Patriots’ either: From open until today New England has moved from +1800 to +2500 to win the AFC East, +7500 to 100-1 to win the AFC, and 150-1 to 250-1 to win the Super Bowl at ESPN BET.
While the win total itself has not moved, the price on the over has moved in New England’s favor, going from -145 at open to -170 in May and ultimately settling into its current position at -150. This is likely because of the 58.4% of bets and 73.5% of money is on the over, per ESPN BET.
BetMGM denotes that the Pats are the third most-bet team by tickets in the league to go over their win total (though 58% of handle at the book is on the under) and 95% of money is on them to make the playoffs, though the action is limited, according to the book. On the flip side, New England is the most-bet team in the NFL to have the fewest wins this season at DraftKings (+320 favorite).
There is one potential transaction that may or may not factor into the Patriots’ odds this season: According to multiple reports, 49ers wide receiver Brandon Aiyuk could be traded to New England, but at this point, odds haven’t moved on the news and aren’t likely to, even if the trade goes through. This is because, as one sportsbook representative put it, “the Patriots will still be bad.”
Aug 2: Texans-Bears preseason game attracts more bets than MLB
Purdum: The first NFL preseason game attracted more betting interest than any of Thursday’s regular season baseball games at multiple sportsbooks, but a lot of the action ultimately would be refunded after the Houston Texans-Chicago Bears contest was cut short due to severe weather.
With storms rolling into Canton, Ohio, the Hall of Fame Game was stopped with 3:31 left in the third quarter and the Bears leading 21-17. The Texans closed as 2.5-point favorites at ESPN BET, with the over/under total at 32.5.
Most sportsbook rules state that football games must go 55 minutes for bets to be action, although there are some nuances. ESPN Bet and Fanatics, for example, voided wagers that had not been determined, such as the point spread and over/under totals. Successful prop bets like if a player scored a touchdown during the game were paid at Fanatics.
Texans-Bears attracted more bets than any of Thursday’s five MLB games at BetMGM sportsbooks. A spokesperson for Fanatics told ESPN that the NFL game attracted approximately 17 times more bets than the most popular MLB game (Baltimore Orioles-Cleveland Guardians).
“Despite limited participation from starters and weather leading to an early ending, Texans-Bears was one of the most popular events of the day on ESPN BET by both tickets and handle,” Patrick Jay, senior vice president and head of ESPN BET, told ESPN. “An abbreviated preseason game comparing favorably to MLB action and the Olympics signals the vast popularity of football, and how eager fans are for the return of NFL.”
July 31: Dodgers big movers, Phillies popular pick after deadline
Doug Greenberg: The 2024 MLB trade deadline saw many of the perennial buyers continue to buy, in turn, triggering line moves and betting action across the sportsbook marketplace.
It starts with the World Series favorite Los Angeles Dodgers, who made late July’s biggest splashes by acquiring Amed Rosario, Tommy Edman and Michael Kopech earlier in the week, followed by Jack Flaherty and Kevin Kiermaier on deadline day. While LA’s already short championship odds stayed pat at +300, their odds to win the National League pennant improved very slightly from +150 to +145 on ESPN BET.
The Dodgers are now the World Series favorite at the trade deadline for the fourth time in the last five seasons, one of which was the shortened 2020 season that saw them win it all. However, the last time the favorite at the deadline won the championship during a full season was the Chicago Cubs in 2016, per ESPN Stats and Information.
Just down the road from Los Angeles, the San Diego Padres were also busy, bolstering their pitching by grabbing Martin Perez, Tanner Scott and Jason Adam within the last week. The Pads are now +3000 to win the title across the board after being as long as +5000 one week ago. Plus, they’ve attracted the most bets to win the NL at ESPN BET (32%) and BetMGM (50%) since the beginning of this week.
The NL’s standings leader, the Philadelphia Phillies, made only some cursory trades before and at the deadline, resulting in marginal line movement. However, that didn’t stop bettors from getting excited about them: The Phils are the most-bet team to win the World Series by tickets (19.2%) since Sunday at ESPN BET, as well as the most-bet team by bets (21%) and handle (21%) since Friday at DraftKings.
The second-most-bet team at ESPN BET since Sunday and the most-bet at BetMGM since Monday is the New York Yankees, who got a boost from their trade for Jazz Chisholm Jr. over the weekend and Mark Leiter Jr. on deadline day. They moved from -125 to -150 to win the AL East, and from +600 to +500 to win the World Series at ESPN BET.
As a result, New York’s division rival, the Baltimore Orioles, got longer in their odds, going from -105 to +120 for the AL East and from +650 to +700 for the World Series. Still, they’re the most-bet team to win the pennant (29%) since Sunday at ESPN BET.
Last but not least, the Cleveland Guardians, who currently sit atop the AL standings, tightened their odds gap to the top teams, moving from +1800 to +1600 to win the World Series. They were also a popular pick among bettors, attracting 18% of the recent tickets to win the AL at ESPN BET, as well as 10.5% of the recent tickets to win the World Series at BetMGM.
July 26: Team USA dominates Olympic gold medal betting handle
Doug Greenberg: As Team USA boards their boats for the opening ceremony on the Seine River in Paris, bettors in the United States are backing their compatriots at an unsurprisingly high clip.
ESPN BET reports that 39% of bets and 55% of handle are on American athletes and teams to win gold medals in their respective events.
Topping the list is the U.S. Men’s Basketball team (-400), followed immediately by the U.S. women’s basketball team (-2000). Sprinters Noah Lyles (+140 in the men’s 100m, -350 in the 200m) and Sha’Carri Richardson (-175 in the women’s 100m) are the most-bet individual athletes on the list.
The U.S. women’s 3×3 basketball team, (-120) and soccer team (+190) come next, with Sydney McLaughlin-Levrone (-500 in women’s 400m hurdles) rounding out the top 10 for the U.S.
The only non-Americans on the list are the Canadian men’s basketball team (+900), Carlos Alcaraz (-135 in men’s tennis) and Iga Swiatek (-215 in women’s tennis), listed at seventh, eighth and ninth, respectively. DraftKings also reports that the Spain’s men’s soccer team (+200) and the French men’s basketball team (+1200) are two of their most-bet teams thus far.
Team USA has also dominated the betting markets for both most gold medals (-550) and most overall medals (-2000). The U.S. has 43% of the tickets and 64% of the money in the most overall medals market, though China (+340) has also received 50% of bets and 29% of handle, while host nation France (+6600) has gotten 7% of both tickets and handle in the gold medal and overall medal markets.
With such long odds for the U.S. in the most overall medals market, many bettors are turning to the total gold medal market. ESPN BET reported heavy action on Team USA’s opening number, 39.5 gold medals, causing it to close at 40.5 ahead of the opening ceremony.
July 23: Edey, Sheppard lead NBA ROY race after summer league, Bronny gets most tickets
Doug Greenberg: The Miami Heat took down the Memphis Grizzlies in overtime on Monday night to win the 2024 NBA summer league title. The annual offseason league gave many rookies their first taste of professional action — and gave both bookmakers and bettors an idea of what to expect in the upcoming season’s Rookie of the Year race.
After opening at +2000 to win the award at ESPN BET, Memphis Grizzlies’ center Zach Edey is now the standalone betting favorite at +550. The former Purdue big man became the favorite after the start of summer league and has attracted a category-leading 23.97% of the handle at the sportsbook.
Next on the list is Houston Rockets guard Reed Sheppard, who moved from +1000 at open to +650 after attracting 14.80% of the handle (second-best) and 13.61% of the bets (third-best).
Meanwhile, the only two players selected ahead of him in the 2024 NBA draft, Atlanta Hawks’ forward Zaccharie Risacher and Washington Wizards’ forward Alex Sarr, have both moved down the list, showing +800 and +900 after opening at +450 and +350, respectively; Sarr has gotten some modest action, but Risacher has garnered just over 1% of bets and handle at ESPN BET.
The Spurs’ Stephon Castle (+900) and the Bulls’ Matas Buzelis (+1000) both lengthened moderately following summer league action, while the Lakers’ Dalton Knecht shortened all the way down to +1000 after opening at +1800.
However, it’s Knecht’s more famous rookie teammate that has captured the attention of the betting public: Bronny James has a leading 24.76% of the tickets at ESPN BET despite having some of the longest odds on the board at 150-1.
July 17: Celtics, Knicks lead NBA opening win totals
Doug Greenberg: Sportsbooks are expecting the Boston Celtics to pick up right where they left off after a 64-win regular season and an NBA record 18th championship. ESPN BET released its win totals for the 2024-25 NBA season Wednesday and has the C’s leading the way with 58.5 wins. That would be their highest preseason win total in the past 30 years, surpassing their previous high of 56.5 in 2009-10, which they went under.
Next up are the Oklahoma City Thunder (55.5 wins), who tied the Denver Nuggets (52.5 wins) for the most wins in the Western Conference last season with 57. The New York Knicks, one of the most active teams during the offseason, has the second-highest Eastern Conference win total at 53.5, eight games higher than their total of 45.5 heading into last season. It also ties their highest preseason win total in the past 30 years, matching the 1997-98 team (they went under that season).
The NBA Finals runner-up Dallas Mavericks debut with a 50.5 win total, tying them with the Milwaukee Bucks for seventh on the list. The Los Angeles Lakers win total is 44.5 and have gone under their win total projections in each of the past five seasons.
The team with the lowest win total heading into this season is the Brooklyn Nets, who are in the midst of a rebuild following the high-profile Mikal Bridges trade. Their total is 19.5 juiced to the over at -125.
2024-25 NBA win totals
Atlanta Hawks 35.5
Brooklyn Nets 19.5
Boston Celtics 58.5
Charlotte Hornets 29.5
Cleveland Cavaliers 47.5
Dallas Mavericks 50.5
Denver Nuggets 52.5
Detroit Pistons 24.5
Golden State Warriors 42.5
Houston Rockets 42.5
Indiana Pacers 46.5
LA Clippers 40.5
Los Angeles Lakers 44.5
Memphis Grizzlies 47.5
Miami Heat 44.5
Milwaukee Bucks 50.5
Minnesota Timberwolves 52.5
New Orleans Pelicans 45.5
New York Knicks 53.5
Oklahoma City Thunder 55.5
Orlando Magic 47.5
Philadelphia 76ers 52.5
Phoenix Suns 46.5
Portland Trail Blazers 21.5
San Antonio Spurs 35.5
Sacramento Kings 46.5
Toronto Raptors 30.5
Washington Wizards 22.5
July 10: U.S. men, women commanding favorites for Paris Olympics
David Purdum: The United States men’s and women’s basketball teams are commanding odds-on favorites to win gold at the 2024 Paris Olympics.
The U.S. men are -550 to win at ESPN BET, while the U.S. women are even stronger favorites at -1,500.
The U.S. men have won four consecutive Olympic tournaments and head to Paris as bigger favorites than they were in 2021, when they marched through the field to win gold at the Tokyo Olympics, going 8-0 with an average margin of victory of 27.9 points per game. The U.S was around a -350 favorite in 2021. The U.S. has claimed 16 gold medals in men’s basketball overall while all other countries have combined to win four.
Canada has the second-shortest odds to win gold at 11-1, followed by Victor Wembanyama and France at 15-1.
The U.S. men open Olympic play July 28 as consensus 12.5-point favorites over Serbia.
The U.S. women are seeking an eighth-straight gold medal, which would set an Olympic record for most consecutive gold medals for a country in a team sport.
Oddsmakers aren’t expecting the U.S. women’s basketball team to face much competition. No team outside of the U.S. has shorter than 20-1 odds to win gold at ESPN BET. Belgium has the second-shortest odds at 20-1, followed by Australia, Canada, China, France, Japan and Spain, which are each listed at 28-1.
The U.S. women open July 29 against Japan and are 16.5-point favorites.