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Jeremy Fowler, senior NFL national reporter
The Denver Broncos have informed Russell Wilson that he will be released at the start of the league year on March 13, it was revealed on Monday, rendering the 2024 address of the nine-time Pro Bowler a mystery.
Wilson, 35, had a tumultuous two seasons in Denver, performing competently for most of the 2023 season but failing to live up to the five-year, $242.6 million contract he signed after being traded from the Seattle Seahawks in March 2022. It was that rich contract that made Wilson virtually untradable for the Broncos — who will absorb a $85 million cap hit over the next two seasons — and places him in control of his own destiny.
Who might the suitors be for Wilson’s services? ESPN’s Jeremy Fowler sized up the complete state of Wilson’s free agency and identified which teams represent the best and most intriguing fits — as well as the QB-needy teams that are less of a match for Wilson:
Jump to a team:
ATL | LV | PIT
MIN | NE | No. 2
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What are league sentiments around Wilson?
As we wrote back in January, many around the league view Wilson as a midtier starter, believing he rehabilitated his career under Broncos coach Sean Payton, though a few see him as slightly below midtier.
“He actually played well during their midseason winning streak,” an AFC personnel man told us during the season. “He’s still a good quality starter. He can still make all of the throws, still mobile. Honestly, his skills haven’t declined that much. It’s more about the fit as a person. His teammates seemed to like him there.”
Others saw a functional but declining skill set, good enough for Wilson to earn one of 32 starting jobs but not enough to rediscover his Seattle self.
“Physically Russ is declining as his deep ball, mobility and overall accuracy are fading,” an AFC personnel director said. “I think his career arc is unique because he’s basically an older version of his younger self in Seattle. He needs a strong running game and defense once again to be a serviceable starter.”
With that in mind, and with Wilson officially headed for free agency, where could he end up?
An established veteran is attractive to Atlanta, but the sense is that the Falcons will target other quarterbacks. Execs I’ve spoken to largely expect Atlanta to walk away with one of these three quarterbacks: Kirk Cousins, Justin Fields or Baker Mayfield. This is a ready-made team that’s a quarterback away. Wilson would fit the profile, but other quarterbacks will likely get a crack at this one.
This is honestly a pretty good fit. The Raiders will explore ways to trade up for a quarterback in the draft — coach Antonio Pierce has an affinity for Jayden Daniels from their Arizona State days — but moving from No. 13 to the top three is an arduous task. The Raiders have not been linked to the Cousins and Mayfield free agencies. It is perhaps notable that Wilson listed Las Vegas as one of his four preferred destinations amid talk of a trade from Seattle in 2021. He would relish the chance to play with Davante Adams, too.
On paper, this makes sense. Pittsburgh is the proverbial quarterback away. Incumbent Kenny Pickett threw a paltry six touchdown passes in 12 starts in the 2023 season. And acquiring Wilson will be cost-effective, which the Steelers love. But the sense out of the combine last week is that the Steelers are prepared to give Pickett another chance and are open to a competition, perhaps including holdover Mason Rudolph. Offensive coordinator Arthur Smith recently traveled to South Florida to meet with Pickett. It’s doubtful Wilson would embrace a 1A or No. 2 role at this stage.
The Vikings are attractive for any prospective quarterback — they have all-world receiver Justin Jefferson and a quarterback-friendly coach in Kevin O’Connell. There’s also a belief in some league circles that Minnesota, should it lose Cousins, is eager to reset its books and possibly take a swing on a quarterback in the draft. If that’s the case, Wilson could be a good option for a year. But Minnesota is in a similar boat as Atlanta in that it could have several options to evaluate, including Mayfield and Fields.
Possible, but much will depend on where New England is in its rebuild. Wilson will prioritize winning, and the Patriots aren’t ready to win big. They need at least a year to replenish the roster. Plus, they have the No. 3 pick, which they could use on Daniels or UNC’s Drake Maye. So, not impossible, but not sure the fit is good for either side.
Could Wilson end up as a No. 2 QB somewhere?
I have a hard time believing that. Most scouts I’ve spoken to consider him a quality starter, and there are enough quarterback-needy teams that at least one door should be open for him. Wilson is committed to not only remaining an NFL starter, but winning big. Plus, he has made $266 million in his career. Why would he be a backup?
The most realistic outcome is Wilson is willing to accept the league minimum, knowing Denver is on the hook for the full $39 million in guarantees, a move he leverages into a starting job somewhere with no promises beyond 2024.