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Mel Kiper Jr., Football analyst
Week 7 of the 2024 NFL season features a “Monday Night Football” doubleheader, and we’ll see two No. 1 NFL draft picks in action. First, Baker Mayfield’s Buccaneers host the Ravens (8:15 p.m. ET, ESPN/ABC/ESPN+). Then Kyler Murray’s Cardinals try to get on track against the Chargers (9 p.m. ET, ESPN+).
I’ve been scouting the draft since 1979, which means I’ve evaluated 46 No. 1 picks, from Tom Cousineau to Caleb Williams. Some have been absolute home runs, some have been big-time letdowns and some are still making their cases. But how do they all compare against each other?
Based on the pick itself and what the player ultimately provided for the team that drafted him, I stacked and tiered every No. 1 selection going back to 1979. I broke them out from the elites to the busts, and while it’s not a 1 to 46 ranking, I did try to slot them appropriately within each tier. I have separate groupings for the four picks who never played for their draft team and the three most recent top selections. It wasn’t fair to include them with the rest. I wove in my original evaluations plus what we saw once each player made it the NFL.
Let’s start with the four best No. 1 picks since I started covering the draft.
Jump to a tier:
Elite picks | True stars | Solid starters
Up-and-down careers | Just OK
Disappointments | Asterisks | Too soon to tell
THE ELITE PICKS
The NFL was truly split between Manning and Washington State’s Ryan Leaf, and I had matching 9.7 grades on them. I did rank Manning as the class’ top QB, though, and Indy ultimately made the right call. He went on to a Super Bowl title, five MVPs and a trip to Canton. His NFL-ready frame, underrated arm and ability to avoid pass-rush pressure made him a terrific prospect, and it’s no surprise he sits third in career passing yards (71,940) and touchdown passes (539) over 17 seasons. In my eyes, he’s the best No. 1 pick in the time I’ve been doing this.