Week 6 betting by the numbers: Are NFL rookie quarterbacks a good bet?

With a record six quarterbacks selected in the first round of the 2024 NFL draft, the expectations were always going to be high for this year’s crop of rookie signal-callers. Through nearly six weeks of the season, they are largely living up to their billing and rewarding bettors who back them, though a new addition to the starters’ club shifted the narrative this week.

Through Sunday night, rookie QBs are 14-6 against the spread, improving upon the already impressive 71-49 record for first-year quarterbacks over the last three seasons, according to ESPN Research. Additionally, rookie QBs are 6-0 outright and against the number as favorites.

Five of those wins came from the respective first two picks in the draft, Caleb Williams and Jayden Daniels, who both covered with their teams again on Sunday, although this time as ‘dogs. Bo Nix did not cover with his Denver Broncos this week, but he still shows a respectable 4-2 ATS record as a starter. That said, bettors know Nix’s luster does not shine as bright, as he was the most bet-on QB to throw an interception on Sunday, according to bet-tracking tool Pikkit.

What may drag down the hot betting start for this subset of players is adding more guys in the mix. Drake Maye and Spencer Rattler both made their NFL debuts on Sunday, and promptly got blown out as home underdogs, as the New England Patriots and New Orleans Saints failed to cover by a combined margin of 34 points. That was great news for the public.

“Bettors were sure happy to go against the rookie QBs, Maye and Rattler. The Saints were one of our biggest needs of the day,” John Murray, executive director of the Westgate SuperBook in Las Vegas, told ESPN.

It went with the general trend of fading quarterbacks in their first career starts, even for a much-hyped No. 3-overall pick like Maye or one with an intriguing pedigree like Rattler. Craig Mucklow (Caesars Sportsbook VP of Trading) said that, as with the three quarterbacks who began the season as starters, bettors “looked to oppose the first-time starters” to great success.

But once the premier rookies got their feet under them, they began to thrive. That was readily evident in the Offensive Rookie of the Year race. ESPN BET says that Daniels and Williams are “separating themselves from the pack,” and DraftKings has them as the only two players shorter than +1000, showing -200 and +170 odds, respectively.

The sportsbook reports that while Daniels has an overall higher percentage of bets and handle to win the award, Williams’ impressive 4-TD passing performance in London this week saw him attract 72% of the handle on Sunday alone. ESPN BET says that Daniels has even garnered 29% of bets and 24% of handle to win MVP in the last two weeks.

A turning point in the narrative could come when the first two picks in this year’s draft go head-to-head for the first time, scheduled for Oct. 27 when the Chicago Bears visit the Washington Commanders.

‘Greatest day for customers’

Late Sunday afternoon, bookmakers from New Jersey to Nevada were on the hunt, hoping to find anyone willing to bet on the underdog New York Giants in the primetime tilt against the Cincinnati Bengals. The last game of the day had a lot riding on it.

Sportsbooks bumped up the lines on the Giants, and semi-serious pleas for G-Men money hit the wires.

“If you know anyone who likes the Giants tonight, we have an account ready and waiting for them,” Joe Brennan, chief of sportsbook Prime Sports, wrote in a text message to ESPN.

He wasn’t alone. Sunday was bad for the bookmakers, but excellent for the betting public.

NFL favorites ruled the day for a change, winning 9-of-11 games straight-up and covering the spread in seven of them. The two underdogs who won (Bears, Indianapolis Colts) had been favored for much of the week, before influential money hit the market, causing the lines to flip.

Including the San Francisco 49ers’ win-and-cover on Thursday night, favorites are 12-2 straight-up and 9-4 against the spread, with 10 out of 12 games going over the total.

“It was a historical day for favorite and over bettors,” Mucklow told ESPN. “Depending on when you bet the games, every favorite would have won and all but one covered.”

Mucklow said Week 12 of last season had previously been the “greatest day for customers,” adding that “this day easily eclipsed this.”

Murray of the SuperBook said the late-afternoon games were particularly bad for the house and caused his team to move the line on the night game toward the favored Bengals in an attempt to attract some action on the underdog Giants.

“We started moving up the Giants line with about an hour left to go in the Lions-Cowboys game knowing we would have a lot of exposure to the Bengals on Sunday Night Football,” Murray said.

Everything the betting public touched — from favorites to road teams to overs to Derrick Henry — seemed to hit. In DraftKings’ touchdown scorer market, Henry was the most popular bet to score one and two touchdowns. He finished with 134 yards rushing and two scores in the Baltimore Ravens’ 30-23 win over the Commanders.

“The biggest fear for books is games where many different players score touchdowns, as the same-game parlay payouts quickly add up,” Mucklow said. “These markets are hugely popular and always command our attention when managing the liabilities.”

Odds and Ends

$145,000: The amount of an in-game money-line bet placed by a Caesars Sportsbook customer in New York on the Saints at -145 odds during their game against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. It was the largest bet reported on Sunday by Caesars Sportsbook. The Saints lost 51-27.

+3000: The odds of Joe Burrow scoring the first touchdown in Sunday night’s Bengals-Giants contest. Only 1% of the bets at BetMGM were on Burrow to score first, as he did with a 47-yard run in the first quarter.

$3,210.12: The amount a customer with Caesars Sportsbook in Arizona put on the Bengals to win the Super Bowl at 35-1 before Sunday night’s game against the Giants. The bet would pay $115,564.32

175/1: The approximate odds on an eight-leg parlay featuring all four favorites and all four overs in the Sunday late afternoon NFL games.

17-3: The NFC North’s combined record against the spread in nondivision games.

49: The number of consecutive games that Georgia has been the favorite, the longest active streak in the nation. Texas begins the week as a 3.5-point favorite over the Bulldogs in Saturday’s marquee SEC showdown.

12.5: Vanderbilt upset Kentucky as a 12.5-point underdog on Saturday. It was the Commodores’ third outright win as an underdog of 12-plus points, tied for the most such upsets since 1978, according to ESPN Research.

1,087: The number of “Scorigamis” (unique final scores) in NFL history after the Lions beat the Cowboys, 47-9. It’s the third Scorigami of the season and the second in a row with Dallas on the losing end.