The 2024 NFL season is just getting started, but it’s never too early to think about the 2025 draft, which begins on April 24 in Green Bay, Wisconsin. Let’s take a look at the projected first-round draft order for all 32 teams using ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI).
Every week during the season, the FPI projects the draft order by simulating the remainder of the season 20,000 times. Game probabilities are based largely on the model’s ratings for individual teams in addition to game locations. The order is based on the records the model believes the teams will have after 17 games and each team’s average draft position in the simulations.
Our FPI predictions still have the Carolina Panthers with the best chance to secure the first pick, but there has been a shift in other top picks. Who’s the new No. 2 after two weeks of play? Which two playoff teams from last season are now in the top 10? Check out our full projections below, and check back every Tuesday for updates throughout the season.
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Average draft position: 5.0
FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: 23.4%
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 67.6%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 88%
Average draft position: 5.8
FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: 18.8%
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 61.5%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 84%
Average draft position: 6.1
FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: 17.9%
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 58.8%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 82.3%
Average draft position: 8.9
FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: 7.8%
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 40.1%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 67.6%
Average draft position: 10.4
FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: 4.3%
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 29.7%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 58.6%
Average draft position: 10.6
FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: 3.6%
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 27.1%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 55.3%
Average draft position: 11.3
FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: 4.3%
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 28.4%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 55%
Average draft position: 11.5
FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: 3.2%
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 25.2%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 52.1%
Average draft position: 11.7
FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: 3.9%
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 25.7%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 52.4%
Average draft position: 12.1
FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: 2.7%
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 22.1%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 47.9%
Average draft position: 12.7
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 19.5%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 45.2%
Average draft position: 14.4
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 13.7%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 35.8%
Average draft position: 15.6
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 11.7%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 31.2%
Average draft position: 16.3
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 11.3%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 30.1%
Average draft position: 17.0
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 7.8%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 23.8%
Average draft position: 17.2
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 23.4%
Average draft position: 17.7
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 19%
Average draft position: 18.8
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 16.9%
Average draft position: 19.3
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 15%
Average draft position: 19.4
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 14.2%
Average draft position: 19.8
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 13.3%
Average draft position: 19.8
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 14.1%
Average draft position: 19.8
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 13%
Average draft position: 20.2
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 14.3%
Average draft position: 20.7
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 9.4%
Average draft position: 21.0
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 10.5%
Average draft position: 22.5
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 8.3%
Average draft position: 23.3
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 5.4%
Average draft position: 23.6
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 6%
Average draft position: 23.8
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 4%
Average draft position: 25.7
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 2.4%
Average draft position: 26.1
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 1.7%