fantasy football breakout players target share run volume

Volume is king in fantasy football.

Every year, players emerge with the potential for increased opportunities. Maybe they were a free agent addition to a new team, maybe the incumbent player is now moving on and a role has opened up for the longtime backup, or maybe a young guy is just playing too well to keep him off the field.

Take Rachaad White, for example. As a rookie, White had 179 touches while incumbent starter Leonard Fournette totaled 269 opportunities for Tampa Bay in 2022. The following year, Tampa moved on from Fournette and added very little depth in the RB department. With only Chase Edmonds, Ke’Shawn Vaughn and Sean Tucker behind Rachaad, White was the clear favorite to lead that backfield in touches. Well, my friend, not only did he lead the Bucs in touches, he was second in the NFL in opportunities with 336 touches, behind only Christian McCaffrey’s 339.

That’s the kind of uptick in usage we’re looking for. So that’s our mission, to pinpoint the situations where a player may have more opportunities available this year than he did in 2023. There are a ton of players who could’ve made this list, but these are my personal favorites for 2024.

Drake London, WR, Atlanta Falcons

I’ve been told that numbers never lie, but they sure can be deceiving. During his first two years in the league, with Arthur Smith as his head coach, London, the No. 8 pick in 2022, turned in a respectable 25.9% target share, good enough for WR17 over that span. But his fantasy value didn’t follow suit as he ranked WR47 in fantasy points per game. If this story sounds familiar, it’s because Smith (as offensive coordinator) and the Titans did the exact same thing with A.J. Brown as a young WR, but that’s a conversation for another day.

So why will Drake London see more opportunities in 2024? First, after playing with Marcus Mariota, Desmond Ridder and Taylor Heinicke, London will have a much more improved and stable QB in Kirk Cousins. That alone was cause for celebration within the fantasy community. Second, Smith’s run-first offense is gone, replaced by a more pass-friendly offense from Zac Robinson, who joins the Falcons after spending the past five seasons with the Los Angeles Rams, most recently working with Matthew Stafford as the passing game coordinator. Now he’s in Atlanta with Cousins at the helm, a very similar style of QB, and London should feast because of it. After seeing 109 and 117 targets in each of his first two seasons, London is a candidate to see a massive jump in opportunities in 2024.

Kyle Pitts, TE, Atlanta Falcons

All the same things that were disappointing for London apply to Pitts, so feel free to mentally copy and paste the negatives from above into this section as well. The bigger issue with Pitts was the third-year slump he experienced after having over 1,000 yards receiving as a rookie. A big part of last year’s slide in production, as Stephania Bell told us on Fantasy Focus last preseason, was likely injury related after Pitts had an MCL and PCL repair on November 29, 2022. In a limited Falcons offense, with suspect QB play, sharing playing time with Jonnu Smith and not being 100% healthy, it’s easy in hindsight to see why Pitts was a disappointment in 2023.

Now in 2024, he’s finally healthy and carries huge bounce-back potential. The tight end position is as deep as it has ever been in fantasy football, but that may benefit Pitts in the minds of fantasy managers, as he doesn’t carry the lofty expectations or high-round ADP he did coming out of his stellar rookie season. In 2024, Pitts should firmly be a TE1 with game-breaking upside if Cousins and Robinson can get this Falcons passing game back on track. After seeing 58 targets in 2022 and 90 in 2023, expect Pitts to see much more passing-game involvement in 2024.

Zamir White, RB, Las Vegas Raiders

White takes over as the lead back in Las Vegas with Josh Jacobs leaving after a strong five-year run with the franchise. Jacobs has never lacked in the opportunity department, finishing in the top 13 in touches every season of his career, including two top-three campaigns, leaving a massive run share up for grabs in the Vegas backfield. Enter White. After sitting behind Jacobs during his first two years in the league, he’ll have first go as the lead back in Sin City. The team did sign Alexander Mattison this offseason, but he failed to prove he was capable of being “the guy” last season in Minnesota.

Given the Raiders’ sketchy QB situation, it would be smart for them to shorten games by running the ball and dominating time of possession, and letting their ninth-ranked defense do the dirty work. I know, it’s a little anecdotal, but isn’t that how you’d operate if you had Aidan O’Connell or Gardner Minshew under center? I could easily see White finishing in the top 15 in touches this season, and even though those touches won’t be as high value as you would like in a low-scoring offense, he’ll push for 20 touches a game. White is one of my favorite hero running back RB2s, and I think it’s a good bet he could outperform his ADP in 2024.

Jameson Williams, WR, Detroit Lions

Williams had a pretty rough start to his NFL career. After missing the majority of his rookie season, Williams missed even more time in his sophomore campaign because of suspension. Now entering Year 3, there aren’t very many comps on guys like Williams breaking out to prove the doubters wrong. Despite that, Lions GM Brad Holmes has all but doubled down on him this season. Don’t forget this guy was drafted No. 12 overall in 2022 after the team traded up to acquire him. Lions beat writer Jeff Risdon said on the Detroit Lions Podcast, “I know they’re excited about what they’ve got in him, and that’s why they’re not pursuing any other wide receivers and you will not see other wide receivers brought in. Agents have asked. … Detroit is not interested in bringing in any receivers at this point.”

That’s a ringing endorsement for Williams, corroborated by the fact that the Lions didn’t add a single WR earlier this year in free agency or the draft. The Lions, who ranked second in passing yards per game and the top five in points scored, are banking on Williams to provide an element to this passing game that didn’t exist with just Amon-Ra St. Brown and Sam LaPorta last year. For what it’s worth, since entering the league in 2022, Williams is WR5 in fantasy points per touch, highlighting that big-play ability. With only 50 targets during his first two seasons, trust me when I say we’ll be seeing a lot more of Williams in 2024.

More Opportunities

Bills WRs: Curtis Samuel and Khalil Shakir

Departures from Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis means that 240 targets from last year are up for grabs. Obviously Dalton Kincaid will get his as a promising second-year TE, but Samuel and Shakir, both of whom were top-15 in slot fantasy points last season, will see an uptick in opportunities. Given their double-digit-round ADP, it’s an easy investment in a high-value offense with a premier QB at the helm.

Bengals RBs: Zack Moss and Chase Brown

Joe Mixon had the fourth-most touches in the NFL last season with 309. He’s now the lead back in Houston, which means newly acquired Moss and second-year back Brown will be in line to split the touches Mixon has left behind. I’m planting my flag on Moss as a low-end RB2 in this offense after his early season dominance in 2023 in place of Jonathan Taylor. Moss had multiple games with more than 20 fantasy points when given the lead role, and it’s not hard to imagine him having the opportunities to succeed again. Brown is a nice pass-catcher out of the backfield, but he had only 58 touches in 2023. While this may not be a true RBBC, there are shades of splitting time here unless one of these guys establishes himself as the alpha early on. Either way, both should see plenty of volume in 2024.