It used to be rare for a rookie wide receiver to make a big impact, but that paradigm is changing. A rookie wide receiver with 1,000 receiving yards may now be a perennial occurrence. Every NFL draft since 2019 has had a rookie receiver hit the 1,000-yard mark, and the 2022 draft had two (although that may partially be a function of the league moving to a 17-game season).
Wide receivers are no longer just a long-term investment — they can make an immediate impact on a team’s passing game.
Playmaker Score, Football Outsiders’ metric for projecting top wide receiver prospects, shows that immediate impact can be expected from a couple of this year’s top prospects, but another top-25 prospect comes in lower than expected.
Playmaker Score analyzes the player’s peak college season along with other variables to project a player’s receiving yards per season in his first five seasons.
Below, we take a look at some of Playmaker’s top prospects in the 2023 NFL draft, along with some similar prospects from previous drafts. Our similar historical prospects are based on former players who were similar in their Playmaker statistics, so you might see us compare two physically dissimilar players because they were similar statistically.
