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Alaina Getzenberg, ESPN
ORCHARD PARK, N.Y. — The end of the Buffalo Bills season was a reality Josh Allen struggled to process in the moments after yet another playoff loss to the Kansas City Chiefs.
General manager Brandon Beane said in talking to Allen after the game, “I don’t think he had rationalized that we lost the game and he was just like, ‘We were right there. Tell me we didn’t lose this game.'”
The next day, speaking with reporters, Allen hadn’t shaken the feeling.
“It still feels surreal that we’re not practicing today,” Allen said. “Didn’t feel like our season was done yet. And honestly, still doesn’t feel like that way.”
The feeling of coming up short in the postseason has become all too familiar for the Bills. In the years since they ended their long playoff drought, the bar has been raised in large part because of Allen’s play.
Despite having the third-best winning percentage in the NFL since Allen was drafted in 2018, the Bills have gone to one AFC Championship in that time and have zero Super Bowl appearances.
Allen’s postseason play has not been the issue — 64.6% completions, 21 passing touchdowns, four interceptions, 83 rushing attempts for 563 yards and five rushing scores — which leads to a natural question about whether the group around him is good enough to take the next step, on top of questions about the defense’s struggles to stop Patrick Mahomes in the postseason.
Allen will be 28 years old and in his seventh NFL season as 2024 starts, a season the Bills are entering with significant questions and minimal cap space to work with.
This isn’t a team that’s rebuilding, Beane reiterated on Tuesday, speaking of a roster that has quite literally been plays away. But the same results have left a fan base disappointed, and answers in short supply.
What’s next in the quest to support Allen offensively?
The implications of the OC switch
The Bills enter the offseason with question marks at all three coordinator positions, though interim offensive coordinator Joe Brady is the leader to retain the job after Allen publicly expressed support for him. The Bills only lost one regular season game with Brady as coordinator.
“I love Joe. I love what he brings to this team, to our offense, the juice that he has, the passion he has for football … he’s got my vote,” Allen said.
Allen said that he felt like the offense did “simple better” with Brady and ran the ball “extremely well.” After Brady took over playcalling in Week 11, the Bills had the second-highest designed rush percentage in the NFL (46.5%) compared to 26th from Weeks 1-10 (35.5%).
McDermott made clear his pass-first preferences on Tuesday, while also emphasizing the importance of the ground game.
“I cut my teeth around Andy Reid who was a pass-first, you throw to win [coach]. And that has been my philosophy since day one pretty much here,” McDermott said. “Especially since Josh has grown into a player and the quarterback that he has. … I do believe though that you’ve got to be able to control the line of scrimmage and run when you need to run. So, I think it is important that we have that ability to run the football, in particular in Western New York.”
A full offseason would allow Brady to better implement his style of offense. Allen said he expected a little bit of a change systematically, and seeing what it could be “does get me excited.”
One thing Brady reinforced was running the ball more with Allen, who had 48 carries through the first 10 games and 83 in the nine games that followed.
“As long as he’s smart about [running the ball], we don’t want to take that away,” Beane said.
They would be advised not to. Limiting Allen as a runner diminished his potency overall. As Brady said leading up to the game vs. the Chiefs, “I think when you try to hold Josh Allen back, you’re probably doing a disservice.”
Wanted: Explosive plays
The Bills simply didn’t have enough of them in 2023. Including the playoffs, 4.9% of the Bills’ offensive plays went for 20-plus yards (28th in the NFL) with only 12% of completions going for 20 yards or more (25th).
That reality was epitomized in the loss to the Chiefs by Stefon Diggs’ deep-ball drop on the first play of the Bills’ final offensive drive. When targeted, Diggs caught 5-of-24 passes of at least 20 air yards.
“Your best players have to play well when you’re playing for a chance to go to the AFC Championship or a chance to get in the playoffs, all that,” Beane said. “And we had a lot of players that played well, but it’s, again, it’s a play here, a play there is the difference in losing by three points or us still playing this week.”
One point of emphasis entering the year was improving yards after catch (YAC). Well, that was up to 5.2 YAC per reception in 2023, the highest average for the offense with Allen at quarterback. That number must continue to grow, which would mean more big plays and less of a need for all the responsibility to rest on Allen’s shoulders.
The good news for the Bills in that area is that all five starting offensive linemen are under contract for next season. The group, which started every game this season, allowed Allen to be sacked a career-low 24 times.
“Usually, a scoring drive has baked into it an explosive run or an explosive pass or a big time penalty, say on the defense,” McDermott said. “I understand that, we understand that, and that’s a part of us moving forward as we look at our roster and we look at player acquisition, something that we need to take a hard look at.”
Will this be the long-awaited ‘receiver draft’?
Wide receiver Gabe Davis is set to explore free agency in March (which Davis himself acknowledged on Monday), as is receiver Trent Sherfield Sr. Beane emphasized on Tuesday that the team still views Diggs, 30, as a No. 1 receiver and that it must “continue to put weapons out there” to keep defenses from focusing on him. Diggs is set to account for the second-highest cap hit on the roster and would be difficult to move on from.
But Buffalo needs to add to the wide receiver room. Beane has never drafted a wide receiver on Day 1 or Day 2 of the draft, but with the restricted cap space, it’s the most practical option for the future as well.
Elsewhere on offense, tight end Dalton Kincaid’s second season will be something to watch, while expectations will be high for running back James Cook to improve in year three.
Allen’s presence always gives the Bills a chance, but the approach to supporting him this offseason will be key, especially at this point in his career.
“So you’re constantly changing the roster, but this is a quarterback league, and I believe in the guy we’ve got under center,” Beane said. “….We got other players that have to help, [Allen] can’t do it by himself, but I don’t subscribe to the window is closing or is closed.”