Chargers-Broncos: Who’s closer to battling for the AFC West again?

ENGLEWOOD, Colo. — Before Andy Reid unleashed Patrick Mahomes on the AFC West, it didn’t take two hands to count the list of Denver Broncos quarterbacks who missed the playoffs. Before Los Angeles played in a soccer stadium on the way to SoFi, the Broncos and the Chargers ruled the AFC West.

But, alas, that was in the years B.P. — Before Patrick — and before the Chiefs were poised to win their eight consecutive division title.

In a 10-year span from 2006 to 2015, either the Broncos and Chargers won the AFC West nine times. The Chargers won from 2006 to 2009; and the Broncos won it from 2011 to 2015, along with two Super Bowl trips and one win.

Now, the two franchises are again spinning their wheels on potentially lost seasons. The Chargers, with two playoff appearances and no playoff wins over the past 10 years, will be on the hunt for their fifth head coach since 2013, including current interim Giff Smith, after Brandon Staley was fired earlier this month.

Sean Payton, closing in on the finish of his first season coaching the Broncos, decided to benched starter Russell Wilson on his way to becoming the fourth consecutive Broncos coach to miss the playoffs. Denver’s postseason drought would span eight years and another offseason, with the question of what the team will do behind center swirling around it.

So, here in Week 17 the Chargers and Broncos meet again. Who’s closer to getting it right and competing for the division again? Or just closer to stressing the Chiefs out on the way to another title? Broncos reporter Jeff Legwold and Chargers reporter Kris Rhim take a look:

Ownership

Chargers: The Spanos family has owned the Chargers since 1984, when Alex Spanos bought the team. After Alex died in 2018, his son Dean took over. John Spanos, Dean’s son, runs the team’s day-to-day operations as team president. The franchise made its only Super Bowl appearance in 1995, a 49-26 loss to the San Francisco 49ers. Since then, the Chargers have become synonymous with mediocrity; the team has made just two AFC championship appearances in the Spanos era. Ownership also has a reputation for being unwilling to spend big money on coaches while giving players top contracts.

Broncos: When Rob Walton, with Greg Penner and Carrie Walton Penner, led a group to purchase the Broncos in August 2022 for $4.65 billion, it changed the financial hierarchy of the NFL. Walton, the Walmart heir, has an estimated net worth of $60 billion, according to Forbes. The Broncos’ ownership group has more estimated personal net worth than the next five NFL owners combined. That means it will always be more about the quality of decisions for the Broncos rather than their ability to pay for them. There is also a lingering question of how much the day-to-day CEO — Greg Penner — will be involved in football decisions going forward, especially if Payton builds an older roster up against the salary cap.

The future at quarterback

Chargers: The Chargers and the Chiefs are the only teams with a long-term answer at quarterback in the AFC West; for Los Angeles that answer is Justin Herbert. In his first three seasons, Herbert broke league records for the most passing yards (14,089) and completed passes (1,316). Los Angeles made Herbert the highest-paid player in franchise history last season with a five-year, $262.5 million extension. He is out for the remainder of the season with a broken right index finger, but the Chargers have their long-term quarterback.

Broncos: The Broncos might indeed have a plan at QB tucked away somewhere that involves Jarrett Stidham, but Wilson’s potential exit will hang over the franchise the most. The Broncos project to be $20 million over the 2024 cap before any decision on Wilson, and the free agent crop of quarterbacks doesn’t offer many short-term improvements. The team hasn’t used a first-round pick on a quarterback since 2016, when it selected Paxton Lynch, who had four career starts. If Payton pushes for the crippling roster-building decision of cutting Wilson, Denver will take on on two years of enormous dead money hits — about a combined $85 million.

Roster construction

Chargers: This roster is laden with high-paid and aging stars. L.A. is projected to be $34.8 million over the cap next season, according to Roster Management System. With stars such as WR Keenan Allen, C Corey Linsley, OLB Khalil Mack and DE Joey Bosa, this roster was built — and contracts were restructured last offseason — for the Chargers to contend in 2023. A new coach and general manager might make significant changes to set this team up for future success, or restructure contracts and try to turn things around quickly.

Broncos: The Broncos are somewhat limited in flexibility already and opened the season with the 24th-youngest roster in the league. They have just one of their own first-round picks, CB Pat Surtain II, playing on defense and are already squeezed against the cap for 2024.

Draft picks

Chargers: With a 5-10 record, Los Angeles is in line to have its first top-10 selection since drafting Herbert at No. 6 in the 2020 draft. Under Telesco, the Chargers successfully secured talented first-rounders in Bosa, OT Rashawn Slater and S Derwin James. Telesco, however, signed just five draft picks to second contracts over 11 seasons, a sign of the Chargers’ struggles with successful late-round picks. The Chargers’ most significant needs are tight end, cornerback and right tackle. Those could change, however, depending on how this roster changes before the draft under new management.

Broncos: The Broncos had a five-player draft class in 2023 — the team’s smallest in 16 years. Just two of the picks, wide receiver Marvin Mims Jr. and linebacker Drew Sanders, have seen the field extensively beyond special teams. They have six picks in April with only two picks in the draft’s first two days, no second-rounder and no sixth-rounder at the moment.

Pending free agents

Chargers: The Chargers are projected to have 26 free agents, including running back Austin Ekeler, tight end Gerald Everett and linebacker Kenneth Murray Jr. Ekeler has been outspoken about his future in Los Angeles, noting that he is “painting his résumé” for wherever he plays next. Everett has been a consistent contributor in the Chargers’ passing game, averaging 5.3 yards after the catch on receptions, tied for most on the team. The Chargers declined Murray’s fifth-year rookie option ahead of the 2023 season. Murray’s play has fluctuated throughout this season, but he leads the team with 107 tackles.

Broncos Linebacker Josey Jewell, who has played in 76 games for the Broncos, and center Lloyd Cushenberry, with 55 starts, lead the way. Jewell’s future might depend on the plan for Sanders, who has played both inside and outside linebacker this season, and Cushenberry has had his most consistent season. Kicker Wil Lutz, defensive tackle Mike Purcell, safety P.J. Locke and cornerback Fabian Moreau are the other starters poised for the open market. Cornerback K’Waun Williams, who has been on injured reserve all year, is also an unrestricted free agent.

The bottom line

Chargers: For the past two seasons, the Chargers have boasted what, on paper, appears to be one of the best rosters in the NFL. Over those two seasons, many of their stars have dealt with injuries that have often kept this team from full strength. When the Chargers signed Mack and traded for J.C. Jackson in the 2022 offseason, they appeared in line to compete for the division title and the conference championship, but at 5-10 a season later, with salary cap issues looming, this team could be due for a reset in 2024.

Broncos: The Broncos face an enormous decision with Wilson, and the best solution to build a roster — figuring out a way to make it work for at least one or two years — might not be the one Payton wants. They’re not a young team, they have only three of their own first-round picks on their roster and just six picks in the coming draft a year after a five-player draft. They have more money than anybody in the league, but they’ll need more than money to fix their issues.