NFL Week 15 picks, schedule, odds, injuries, fantasy tips

NFL Nation, ESPNDec 15, 2023, 06:50 AM ET

The Week 15 NFL schedule for the 2023 season is stacked with great matchups, and we have you covered with what you need to know heading into the weekend. Our NFL Nation reporters bring us the biggest keys to every game and a bold prediction for each matchup.

Additionally, ESPN Stats & Information provides a big stat to know and a betting nugget for each contest, and our Football Power Index (FPI) goes inside the numbers with a game projection and a look at the playoff picture. Analytics writer Seth Walder picks out each matchup’s biggest X factor, and fantasy analyst Eric Moody hands out helpful fantasy football intel. Finally, Walder and Moody give us final score picks for every game. Everything you want to know is here in one spot to help you get ready for a loaded weekend of NFL football.

Let’s get into the full Week 15 slate, including three games on Saturday, the Dallas Cowboys visiting the Buffalo Bills and a Lamar Jackson vs. Trevor Lawrence matchup on Sunday night. It all culminates with a “Monday Night Football” matchup between the Eagles and the Seahawks on ESPN. (Game times are Sunday unless otherwise noted, and all playoff percentages are via ESPN’s FPI.)

Thursday: LV 63, LAC 21

Saturday, 1 p.m. ET | NFL Network | Spread: CIN -3 (40.5)

Storyline to watch: Quarterback Jake Browning and the Bengals’ offense — coming off back-to-back wins — will have to contend with one of the best defenses in the league in this weekend’s matchup. Over the past eight weeks, the Vikings lead the NFL in fewest points allowed per drive (1.4) and fewest points allowed per game (15.3), largely because of a very strong red zone defense. — Ben Baby

Bold prediction: Vikings tight end T.J. Hockenson will catch at least eight passes. The Bengals’ defense has allowed more receptions (88) and yards (935) to opposing tight ends than any other team, and Hockenson leads the NFL in catches by tight ends (85) and is second in yards (839). Some of that production has been the result of receiver Justin Jefferson’s injuries, but even with Jefferson back on the field in Cincinnati, quarterback Nick Mullens will still consider Hockenson a primary target. — Kevin Seifert

Stat to know: The Bengals are 4-0 against NFC teams this season and have won eight straight against the conference, which is tied with Ravens for the longest active win streak against nonconference opponents and tied for the longest streak in franchise history (also eight straight from 2004 to ’05).

Matchup X factor: Vikings linebacker Ivan Pace Jr. The undrafted rookie has played 100% of the Vikings’ defensive snaps over Minnesota’s past three games and is delivering. He ranks seventh in run stop win rate (39.9%) this season among linebackers and has 2.5 sacks, an interception and a forced fumble. — Walder

What’s at stake: In one of the biggest games of the week in terms of playoff swings, the Bengals can improve to 35% to make the playoffs if they win — but a loss shrinks their odds to 10%. The Vikings, meanwhile, are chasing an NFC wild-card spot and are still alive in the NFC North race. They would have a 79% chance to make the playoffs and 21% chance to take the division with a win, but those numbers fall to 51% and 8%, respectively, if they lose. Read more.

Injuries: Vikings | Bengals

What to know for fantasy: Fantasy managers should have confidence in Hockenson this week. There’s no defense in the league that gives up more fantasy points to tight ends than the Bengals. See Week 15 rankings. — Moody

Betting nugget: The Vikings are 4-0 against the spread (ATS) in their past four games as an underdog. Read more.

Moody’s pick: Bengals 23, Vikings 15
Walder’s pick: Bengals 24, Vikings 17
FPI prediction: CIN, 56.5% (by an average of 2.2 points)

Matchup must-reads: Mullens makes history for Vikings with eye on postseason … More balance has led to Bengals’ Burrow-less offensive resurgence … Chase says he’s ‘100%’ playing on Saturday

Saturday, 4:30 p.m. ET | NFL Network | Spread: IND -1.5 (42.5)

Storyline to watch: The Steelers have won eight consecutive games against the Colts including regular-season and postseason games. It’s a remarkable streak that began in 2011, with the Colts’ last win coming in 2008 with quarterback Peyton Manning under center. Pittsburgh coach Mike Tomlin, who was hired in 2007, is 8-1 against Indianapolis and has never lost at Lucas Oil Stadium. — Stephen Holder

Bold prediction: Colts rookie tight end Will Mallory will score his first NFL touchdown. Mallory, who sees the fewest snaps of the Colts’ four tight ends, had a career-high five receptions against the Bengals last week. In their past two losses, the Steelers’ defense gave up three touchdowns to tight ends as New England and Arizona took advantage of mismatches in the secondary and the Steelers’ depleted inside linebacker corps. Though the Colts’ tight ends haven’t been consistent, the position group combined for eight catches, 65 yards and a touchdown against the Bengals — a defense the Steelers exploited earlier this season with a career day by TE Pat Freiermuth. — Brooke Pryor

Stat to know: Colts receiver Michael Pittman Jr. has 982 receiving yards. With 18 more yards, he would be the fourth Colts player with multiple seasons with 1,000 yards receiving, joining Reggie Wayne (eight), Marvin Harrison (eight) and T.Y. Hilton (five).

Matchup X factor: Colts edge rusher Kwity Paye. Since Week 10, Paye ranks second in pass rush win rate at edge (28.0%), behind only Micah Parsons (43.2%). In that same span, Steelers OT Broderick Jones ranks 50th of 67 tackles in pass block win rate (85.4%). — Walder

What’s at stake: This one is huge for the AFC wild-card race. Indy can improves its odds to 64% in a win, but losing to Pittsburgh drops that to 22%. And the Steelers would be at 48% if they get back on track this week, but another loss dims their playoff light to 10%. Read more.

Injuries: Steelers | Colts

What to know for fantasy: The Colts give up the third-most fantasy points per game to running backs. In consecutive games, Najee Harris has had 15 touches, while Jaylen Warren has had 10 or more. Both players are projected to score 11 or more fantasy points and can be relied upon in lineups. See Week 15 rankings. — Moody

Betting nugget: Five of six Colts home games have gone over the total this season. Read more.

Moody’s pick: Colts 24, Steelers 17
Walder’s pick: Steelers 23, Colts 22
FPI prediction: PIT, 55.8% (by an average of 2 points)

Matchup must-reads: Roethlisberger says Steelers tradition might be done … Colts missing Taylor as run game struggles … Watt out of protocol, cleared to play vs. Colts

McAfee: Steelers fans’ nightmare might become a reality

Pat McAfee reacts to Ben Roethlisberger’s comments that the Steelers’ tradition might be done.

Saturday, 8:15 p.m. ET | NFL Network | Spread: DET -4 (47.5)

Storyline to watch: The Lions have lost two of their past three games, while the Broncos have won six of their past seven and are looking to climb the AFC West ladder. It will also be a reunion for Lions coach Dan Campbell and his mentor Sean Payton, now the coach of the Broncos. Campbell spent five seasons on Payton’s staff as an assistant head coach/tight ends coach from 2016 to ’20 and also played on teams Payton coached. “I’ve got a tremendous amount of respect for Sean and everything about him,” Campbell said during Thursday’s practice. “And probably the greatest compliment I can give to him is that he believed in me always and he gave me that shot as a player and a coach.” — Eric Woodyard

Bold prediction: The Broncos’ defense, with 20 sacks and 18 takeaways over the past seven games, will sack Lions quarterback Jared Goff at least four times and intercept him at least once. Only two teams have sacked Goff at least four times and had at least one interception in the same game this season — Baltimore (Oct. 22) and Chicago last week. Those also happen to be the two lowest-scoring games of the Lions’ season. — Jeff Legwold

Stat to know: Broncos receiver Courtland Sutton has had a touchdown reception in all six road games. He can become the fifth player in NFL history with a receiving touchdown in his team’s first seven road games of a season.

Matchup X factor: Goff. Since Week 11, he ranks 22nd in QBR (40.8), 17th in completion percentage over expectation (minus-2.2%) and 27th in off-target rate (17.4%). Detroit needs to get its offense on track again before the playoffs. — Walder

What’s at stake: The Lions can take another step toward the NFC North title if they win Saturday night (90% in a win, 74% in a loss). And the Broncos could make some AFC wild-card noise if they get the victory — their playoff odds would jump to 65%, while a loss puts them at 31%. And yes, Denver is still alive in the AFC West, but it likely needs a win to keep that going (13% in that scenario). Read more.

Injuries: Broncos | Lions

What to know for fantasy: Russell Wilson and his receivers have an advantage. Detroit’s defense has given up the fourth-most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks and the ninth most to wide receivers. Fantasy managers will want Wilson and Sutton, who has scored touchdowns in 10 of 13 games, in lineups. See Week 15 rankings. — Moody

Betting nugget: The Lions are 31-16 ATS under Campbell, the second-best ATS record since 2021 (behind only the Cowboys). Read more.

Moody’s pick: Lions 29, Broncos 26
Walder’s pick: Lions 24, Broncos 20
FPI prediction: DET, 59.3% (by an average of 3.2 points)

Matchup must-reads: How Denver’s defense turned disaster into dominance … Gardner-Johnson (torn pectoral) cleared to return … Lions suddenly looking vulnerable after hot start

1 p.m. ET | FOX | Spread: CLE -3 (38.5)

Storyline to watch: The last time these two teams met, in 2021, Cleveland’s Myles Garrett had almost as many sacks (4.5) as Chicago quarterback Justin Fields had completions (6). Fields is surging since returning from injury in Week 11 — with a 66.7% completion percentage, 609 passing yards and three touchdowns (one rushing) in three games — but will face a big test operating against the Browns’ swarming defensive line. — Jake Trotter

Bold prediction: The Bears’ defense will have another three-takeaway performance, which will bring its four-game total to 11, against a Browns offense that has been prone to turnovers. Cleveland quarterback Joe Flacco has thrown an interception in each of his two starts, and the Browns fumbled twice last week. Bears cornerback Jaylon Johnson and safety Jaquan Brisker will each come away with an interception in Week 15. — Courtney Cronin

Stat to know: The Browns are 2-2 against NFC teams this season, winning both games at home (vs. 49ers, Cardinals) and losing both on the road (at Seahawks, Rams).

Matchup X factor: Johnson. The Chicago corner is on fire. Johnson has allowed 0.7 yards per coverage snap this season, lowest among all outside corners with at least 250 coverage snaps. And he’s coming off a game in which he allowed zero receptions and caught a pick. — Walder

What’s at stake: Beating Chicago would up Cleveland’s playoff chances to 89% (68% in a loss) and division odds to 15% (3% in a loss). Read more.

Injuries: Bears | Browns

What to know for fantasy: DJ Moore has scored 22 or more fantasy points in three consecutive games. Over that time frame, he has averaged 10.6 targets per game. The Browns’ defense has allowed the second-fewest fantasy points per game to wide receivers. However, considering how much Fields relies on Moore, fantasy managers should still include him in their lineups. See Week 15 rankings. — Moody

Betting nugget: The Browns are 6-1 ATS at home this season with unders going 5-1-1. Read more.

Moody’s pick: Browns 21, Bears 16
Walder’s pick: Browns 23, Bears 17
FPI prediction: CLE, 57.4% (by an average of 2.5 points)

Matchup must-reads: Has Eberflus done enough to keep his job? … Browns lose two key defensive players to injury … Ngakoue headed to IR with broken ankle … Stefanski improbably leading Browns to thick of AFC playoff race

Why Justin Fields is a top-10 fantasy QB in Week 15

Field Yates considers Justin Fields a fantasy starter vs. the Browns this week.

1 p.m. ET | CBS | Spread: GB -3.5 (41.5)

Storyline to watch: This is the third straight year that Baker Mayfield has come to Lambeau Field — with his third different team. He combined to throw five interceptions (four in 2021 with the Browns and one last season with the Rams) in those two games. However, the Packers have intercepted the ball only six times this season, including just one in the past five games. — Rob Demovsky

Bold prediction: Buccaneers running back Rachaad White will have another 100-yard rushing performance with a touchdown. The Packers have struggled to stop the run, and since Week 10, they’ve given up 170.4 rushing yards per game, the second most in the league. — Jenna Laine

Stat to know: Packers quarterback Jordan Love has been excellent against the blitz, ranking fourth in QBR while throwing eight passing touchdowns and no interceptions. He’ll look to keep that going against a Buccaneers defense that ranks third in blitz rate.

Matchup X factor: The Buccaneers’ offensive line. Tampa Bay’s pass protection has been below average, but it recorded the highest pass block win rate among all teams in Week 14. If the Bucs can keep that up, that will give Mayfield and the offense a chance to upset the Packers. — Walder

What’s at stake: Tampa Bay is seeking the NFC South title, and a win would boost it to 49% there. It would also give the Bucs a 65% chance to make the playoffs overall. But losing to Green Bay knocks their division hopes to 26% and playoff likelihood to 29%. The Packers, meanwhile, could be 65% to make the playoffs if they win, but a second straight loss to a sub-.500 team would slide them to 26%. Read more.

Injuries: Buccaneers | Packers

What to know for fantasy: Deebo Samuel (5) and Jayden Reed (2) are the only receivers to have scored multiple rushing touchdowns this season. Reed is being relied on as a rusher and receiver and should be included in fantasy lineups against a Buccaneers defense that gives up the sixth-most fantasy points per game to wide receivers. See Week 15 rankings. — Moody

Betting nugget: The Packers have won and covered three straight home games. Read more.

Moody’s pick: Packers 24, Buccaneers 19
Walder’s pick: Packers 27, Buccaneers 16
FPI prediction: GB, 56.4% (by an average of 2.2 points)

Matchup must-reads: Mayfield’s resiliency fuels Bucs’ comeback in Atlanta … What loss to Giants did to Packers’ momentum, playoff odds

Why Jordan Love is a mid-tier QB1 in Week 15

Matt Bowen breaks down why Jordan Love’s matchup makes him a solid fantasy start this week.

1 p.m. ET | CBS | Spread: TEN -2.5 (37.5)

Storyline to watch: The Titans have 10 passing plays of 40-plus yards this season (three-way tie for second place). Rookie QB Will Levis is responsible for five of them in his seven starts. Houston’s secondary is allowing 246.9 passing yards per game (which ranks 26th in the NFL). There should be opportunities for Levis to continue his success at home, where he has 647 passing yards and five touchdown passes in three games. — Turron Davenport

Bold prediction: The Texans will rush for more than 200 yards on the ground. The Titans rank 14th in rushing yards allowed per game (110), and the Texans rank 26th in rushing yards per game (96). But if they want to win, the Texans have no choice but to commit to the ground game with C.J. Stroud likely out because of a concussion. — DJ Bien-Aime

Stat to know: Titans running back Derrick Henry has at least two rushing touchdowns in three straight games for the second time in his career, which ties the Jaguars’ Travis Etienne Jr. for the longest such streak this season. No NFL player has rushed for multiple touchdowns in four straight games since the Chargers’ LaDainian Tomlinson did so in eight consecutive games in 2006.

Matchup X factor: Texans cornerback Derek Stingley Jr. He has allowed minus-12.5 EPA as the nearest defender since Week 10, according to NFL Next Gen Stats. And he and the rest of the young Texans stars will present a challenge for Levis. — Walder

What’s at stake: All playoff eyes are on the Texans here, who would be at 58% to make the playoffs if they beat their division foe. But a loss means just 25% likelihood that DeMeco Ryans’ team plays extra football in his first season as head coach. Houston’s chances to win the division can slide from 13% (win) to 2% (loss). Read more.

Injuries: Texans | Titans

What to know for fantasy: Tennessee receiver DeAndre Hopkins has averaged 8.5 targets and 17.0 fantasy points since the Titans’ Week 7 bye. This season, the Texans’ defense has given up the seventh-most passing yards per game. It’s also worth noting that Houston’s defense has allowed the ninth-most receptions and sixth-most receiving yards to opposing running backs — which bodes well for Titans RB Tyjae Spears. See Week 15 rankings. — Moody

Betting nugget: The Titans are 2-6 outright and ATS against teams currently with winning records. Read more.

Moody’s pick: Titans 24, Texans 20
Walder’s pick: Texans 20, Titans 10
FPI prediction: HOU, 56.8% (by an average of 2.3 points)

Matchup must-reads: Eiselen’s journey from rugby in South Africa to being starstruck by Brady … Levis leads 2 late TD drives as Titans pull off MNF shocker … Levis is working on sliding

1 p.m. ET | CBS | Spread: MIA -8.5 (37.5)

Storyline to watch: The Dolphins’ offense is hurting. Starting offensive linemen have missed a combined 21 games to injury this season, and that number will grow before the end of the year. Guard Connor Williams will miss the remainder of the season, and OT Robert Hunt is not expected to play — although OT Terron Armstead could make his return to the field. Miami could also be without wide receiver Tyreek Hill, who injured his ankle in Monday’s loss to the Titans. His absence would mark uncharted territory as Hill has yet to miss a game since he was traded to the Dolphins in 2022. Can the Jets capitalize on Miami’s injuries? — Marcel Louis-Jacques

Bold prediction: Jets quarterback Zach Wilson will perform better against the Dolphins than Tim Boyle did three weeks ago — but he also won’t come close to duplicating his career-best game from last week (117.9 passer rating against the Texans). Wilson hasn’t played well against Miami (zero touchdown passes in two starts), and he will be frustrated by the Vic Fangio-coached defense, not to mention cornerbacks Jalen Ramsey and Xavien Howard. — Rich Cimini

Stat to know: The Jets have lost 10 straight division road games, the longest active streak in the NFL and the Jets’ second longest since the 1970 merger (12 straight from 1994 to ’97).

Matchup X factor: Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa. He struggled Monday without Hill and now is facing the defense that, according to ESPN’s FPI, is the best in the NFL. This will be a test for the Dolphins’ offense — especially if Hill is out or limited again. — Walder

What’s at stake: Is Aaron Rodgers returning this season? Well, even if the Jets win, their playoffs odds would be 1%. The Dolphins, however, could jump to 99% if they get the W, along with an 81% chance to take the AFC East. A second straight bad loss would slide Miami’s playoff chances slightly to 85%, and its division hopes to 62%. Read more.

Injuries: Jets | Dolphins

What to know for fantasy: This season, Tagovailoa and Hill have connected 97 times for 1,542 yards. Hill’s availability will either positively or negatively impact Tagovailoa’s fantasy potential against a Jets defense that allows the second-fewest fantasy points per game to quarterbacks. See Week 15 rankings. — Moody

Betting nugget: The Dolphins are 7-2 ATS as favorites this season. Tagovailoa is 17-11 ATS in his career as a favorite, including 9-4 ATS when laying at least six points. Read more.

Moody’s pick: Dolphins 34, Jets 14
Walder’s pick: Dolphins 20, Jets 16
FPI prediction: MIA, 80.3% (by an average of 11.3 points)

Matchup must-reads: Dolphins need to overcome loss to Titans, focus on Jets … Wilson is auditioning for Jets backup, other NFL teams … Dolphins lose Williams to torn ACL

Yates: De’Von Achane is a lineup lock if he plays

Field Yates is not hesitating to start De’Von Achane if he starts in Week 15 against the Jets.

1 p.m. ET | FOX | Spread: NO -6 (39.5)

Storyline to watch: The Saints’ passing offense has been struggling, and quarterback Derek Carr had only 37 passing yards through most of Sunday’s win against the Panthers before throwing late touchdowns to Jimmy Graham and Chris Olave. He finished with 119 passing yards. Carr and the offense will look to get back on track against a Giants defense giving up 189.7 passing yards per game over the past four weeks. — Katherine Terrell

Bold prediction: Giants running back Saquon Barkley will rush for 120-plus yards. It’s notable because he has topped 100 yards on the ground only once this season. But he’s motivated by a late fumble against Green Bay, and the Saints’ defense has allowed more than 150 rushing yards in four of its past six games. — Jordan Raanan

Stat to know: Giants QB Tommy DeVito has seven passing touchdowns in four career starts, tied for the second-most passing touchdowns by a player through their first four starts with the Giants since quarterback starts were first tracked in 1950 (trailing only Fran Tarkenton’s eight passing touchdowns in 1967).

Matchup X factor: Giants wide receiver Wan’Dale Robinson. He’s coming off his biggest receiving game of the season, catching six passes for 79 yards in the Giants’ dramatic win over the Packers. If Robinson can develop into a consistent playmaker, that would go far for the Giants’ offense. — Walder

What’s at stake: New Orleans can make a move in the NFC South here, improving its chances to 36% (and 45% for the playoffs) with a win. Lose, and it’s an uphill climb, though. The Saints would then be at 18% to make the playoffs, with 15% of that going toward a division title. And on the other sideline, can DeVito get the Giants another win? It would put New York at 2% to make the playoffs. Read more.

Injuries: Giants | Saints

What to know for fantasy: On the road, the Giants’ defense has allowed 3.4 touchdowns per game, the fourth-highest rate in the NFL. Because New York’s defense gives up the third-most fantasy points to wide receivers, Olave is in a great spot at the Caesars Superdome. See Week 15 rankings. — Moody

Betting nugget: The Saints are 1-5 ATS at home this season. Read more.

Moody’s pick: Saints 21, Giants 17
Walder’s pick: Saints 19, Giants 16
FPI prediction: NO, 79.4% (by an average of 10.9 points)

Matchup must-reads: Does DeVito have a future with the Giants? … Graham helping Saints solve red zone woes … DeVito’s agent, Stellato, embraces viral fame … Shaheed (thigh) plans to play vs. Giants

1 p.m. ET | FOX | Spread: KC -7.5 (37.5)

Storyline to watch: Patriots coach Bill Belichick is second on the all-time wins list (332, including playoffs), while Chiefs coach Andy Reid is closing ground quickly as his 277 victories rank him fourth all time. This is the first time that two head coaches in the top five in career regular-season wins have faced each other since Week 4 of 1990 when Don Shula’s Dolphins met Chuck Noll’s Steelers. This game was originally scheduled for ESPN’s “Monday Night Football” before becoming the first-ever MNF game flexed to Sunday (this is the first year the league has experimented with flexing Monday games), mainly due to the Patriots’ struggles. — Mike Reiss

Bold prediction: The Chiefs will sack Patriots quarterback Bailey Zappe at least four times. The pass rush has been the best part of the Chiefs’ defense in recent games. They are tied for the third-most sacks in the league with 42. Patriots quarterbacks have been sacked 14 times in the past four games, and the Chiefs should have plenty of opportunity to add to that total. — Adam Teicher

Stat to know: Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce is six receptions shy of 900 for his career. Sunday will be his 157th career game. He also has 74 career receiving touchdowns, two shy of matching Tony Gonzalez for the most in Chiefs history.

Matchup X factor: Chiefs DT Chris Jones. As long as Jones and the Chiefs’ defense take care of business in what should be a cake assignment, the Chiefs’ lack of receivers won’t even matter. The defense can set the struggling Chiefs offense up for success. — Walder

What’s at stake: The Chiefs can get right here and put themselves at 95% to win the AFC West if they can just beat the Patriots (Kansas City’s playoff chances would be at 84% in a loss). New England is eliminated from the playoffs, but a loss would mean a 4% chance at the No. 1 pick in the 2024 draft. Read more.

Injuries: Chiefs | Patriots

What to know for fantasy: Patriots running back Ezekiel Elliott has had 21 touches in two consecutive games with Rhamondre Stevenson dealing with a high ankle sprain. Because of Elliott’s volume, he’s firmly on the radar as an RB2. See Week 15 rankings. — Moody

Betting nugget: The Patriots are 3-10 ATS this season, the worst cover percentage in the NFL. Read more.

Moody’s pick: Chiefs 27, Patriots 13
Walder’s pick: Chiefs 30, Patriots 9
FPI prediction: KC, 76.1% (by an average of 9.4 points)

Matchup must-reads: Mahomes’ message to Toney: ‘Just be you’ … Belichick on Patriots future: ‘I’m getting ready for K.C.’ … Mahomes regrets outburst, interaction with Allen … What’s next for Belichick and the Patriots?

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1 p.m. ET | FOX | Spread: ATL -3 (34.5)

Storyline to watch: This game matters more for Atlanta, in a three-way tie with New Orleans and Tampa Bay for the NFC South division lead. The Panthers have been focused the past few weeks on establishing the running game to take pressure off quarterback Bryce Young, and the Falcons have a top-15 run defense that has allowed an NFL-low five rushing touchdowns. Young is coming off arguably the worst game (36.1% completion percentage) of his rookie season and is going against an Atlanta defense that intercepted him twice in the season opener. — David Newton

Bold prediction: This game won’t be decided until late in the fourth quarter. While Carolina has the NFL’s worst record, the Panthers have been within one possession in the fourth quarter in their past five games (all losses). Atlanta has been in one-possession games in eight of its past nine contests. Expect to see that again — and see the Falcons use a combination of Tyler Allgeier and Bijan Robinson to close out the game with two run-heavy possessions, giving Robinson over 100 all-purpose yards. — Michael Rothstein

Stat to know: The Panthers have scored fewer than 20 points in seven straight games, already the longest streak in franchise history. Should they score fewer than 20 points on Sunday, they will tie the Giants for the longest such streak by any team this season (eight games).

Matchup X factor: Panthers cornerback Jaycee Horn. Last week was Horn’s first game back playing 100% of snaps. Thus far in a tiny sample, he has allowed a high 2.0 yards per coverage snap, per NFL Next Gen Stats. But we know he’s capable of being a difference-maker on defense. Carolina will need him to slow down Drake London when they match up, as London is coming off a 172-yard receiving game. — Walder

What’s at stake: More NFC South intrigue! The Falcons would have a 47% chance to make the playoffs and 41% chance to win the division if they beat the Panthers, but they’d plummet to 17% and 14%, respectively, if they can’t get it done. The Panthers are the one NFC South team that is eliminated, and even though their draft pick would be 98% to end up No. 1 if they lose, those rights belong to the Bears. Read more.

Injuries: Falcons | Panthers

What to know for fantasy: The Falcons (31.7) average the third-most rushing attempts per game and face a Panthers defense that has given up the fourth-most fantasy points per game to running backs. In two of his past three games, Robinson has scored 20 or more fantasy points. See Week 15 rankings. — Moody

Betting nugget: The Falcons are 5-1 ATS in their past six division games (they failed to cover last week). Read more.

Moody’s pick: Falcons 27, Panthers 17
Walder’s pick: Falcons 30, Panthers 13
FPI prediction: ATL, 66.5% (by an average of 5.7 points)

Matchup must-reads: How the Falcons’ ‘positionless attitude’ could affect Pitts’ future … What Young, 1-12 Panthers can learn from 1-15 2001 team … Was loss to Saints ‘rock bottom’ for Young, Panthers?

4:05 p.m. ET | CBS | Spread: LAR -6.5 (50.5)

Storyline to watch: Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford has thrown at least three touchdowns in three straight games, tied for the longest streak of his career. The Commanders are the NFL’s worst passing defense in DVOA and have allowed a league-high 30 passing touchdowns. The last Rams quarterback with a longer streak was Kurt Warner, who had four such games in 1999, according to ESPN Stats & Information. — Sarah Barshop

Bold prediction: Rams receiver Puka Nacua will have three 20-yard plays Sunday, including one for a touchdown. He is fourth in the NFL with 21 receptions of 20 yards or more, and their offense also ranks fourth in such plays. Meanwhile, Washington ranks last in passing yards allowed per game and has allowed the second-most pass plays for 20 yards or more. — John Keim

Stat to know: With two sacks Sunday, Commanders quarterback Sam Howell would become the fourth different player (fifth instance) of a quarterback taking at least 60 sacks through their first 14 games of a season. Howell has taken multiple sacks in all but one game this season (Week 8 vs. the Eagles).

Matchup X factor: Rams edge rusher Byron Young. The rookie has six sacks thus far and now has a good chance to get more facing a team with a 10% sack rate (though Howell’s sacks have come way down since the start of the year). — Walder

What’s at stake: The Rams have a big swing in play here. Win, and they have 50% chance to make the postseason. But lose, and it’s just 14%. Read more.

Injuries: Commanders | Rams

What to know for fantasy: The Commanders’ defense gives up the second-most fantasy points to quarterbacks. Wide receivers also score the second-most fantasy points per game against Washington’s defense. See Week 15 rankings. — Moody

Betting nugget: The Commanders are 5-1 ATS as road underdogs this season. Read more.

Moody’s pick: Rams 33, Commanders 19
Walder’s pick: Rams 34, Commanders 30
FPI prediction: LAR, 75.3% (by an average of 9.1 points)

Matchup must-reads: Inside the Commanders’ high-stakes season and what comes next … Two Rams land in the latest top-10 rookie rankings … Upset Commanders players not only ones frustrated

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4:05 p.m. ET | CBS | Spread: SF -12 (47.5)

Storyline to watch: Cardinals quarterback Kyler Murray hasn’t played the 49ers since October 2021, a stretch of four games and more than two years, because of injuries. The last time he lined up against San Francisco, he won. Murray is 2-2 since he returned from an ACL injury and refreshed coming off the bye. The Niners don’t have any fresh tape of facing Murray, including tape of Murray in the Cardinals’ new scheme. With the Niners potentially down some players on defense, especially in their front seven, Murray might have an opportunity to upset a potential Super Bowl team. — Josh Weinfuss

Bold prediction: Niners quarterback Brock Purdy will pass for more than 300 yards and three touchdowns for the third time this season. Purdy was nearly perfect in the first meeting between these teams, throwing for 283 yards and a touchdown with just one incompletion. Given the state of Arizona’s secondary, the Cardinals’ inability to generate pass rush (they have the fourth-lowest pressure rate in the NFL) and the Niners’ injuries on defense, this has the makings of a high-scoring game that allows Purdy to continue adding the counting stats that have him squarely in the NFL MVP conversation. — Nick Wagoner

Stat to know: Purdy has won his first six division games; that’s tied for the fourth-longest streak to begin a player’s career since the 1970 merger. Should he win Sunday in Arizona, he can tie Ben Roethlisberger for the third-longest streak.

Matchup X factor: Murray. Yes, he has delivered two wins in four games, but he has just a 50.0 QBR and a negative-5% completion percentage over expectation, per NFL Next Gen Stats. He’s allowed some time to shake off the rust, but Murray should be better than those numbers suggest. — Walder

What’s at stake: Two very different ends of the spectrum here. We start with the 49ers, who would love a win to push them to a 63% chance to earn a first-round bye (25% in a loss). And the Cardinals could keep their No. 1 pick dreams alive if they do lose (2%). Read more.

Injuries: 49ers | Cardinals

What to know for fantasy: Niners running back Christian McCaffrey has averaged 21.4 touches and 24 fantasy points. Against a Cardinals defense that gives up the second-most fantasy points per game to running backs, McCaffrey could provide a matchup-winning performance. See Week 15 rankings. — Moody

Betting nugget: Overs are 5-0-1 in Cardinals home games this season. Read more.

Moody’s pick: 49ers 31, Cardinals 16
Walder’s pick: 49ers 27, Cardinals 17
FPI prediction: SF, 85.1% (by an average of 13.8 points)

Matchup must-reads: Four unsung heroes who have helped the 49ers thrive … How Murray changed his footwork for West Coast offense … Long passes have made 49ers’ offense difficult to defend

4:25 p.m. ET | FOX | Spread: BUF -2 (50.5)

Storyline to watch: This is a big game for both teams given the playoff implications involved. But this game could very well come down to which defense dealing with injuries can make more stops against offenses with the potential to put up big points. The Cowboys’ offense leads the NFL in points per game (32.4), while the Bills are fifth (26.8). — Alaina Getzenberg

Bold prediction: Bills quarterback Josh Allen will lead the Bills in rushing against the Cowboys and push for 100 yards. The Cowboys are one of seven teams not to allow a 100-yard rusher this season, but they have had issues with quarterbacks. Five times quarterbacks have had more than 30 yards rushing vs. Dallas, including 55 from Joshua Dobbs in a Week 3 loss to Arizona. Without nose tackle Johnathan Hankins, the Cowboys’ run defense has a hole to fill, and Allen will take advantage. — Todd Archer

Stat to know: Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott has multiple passing touchdowns in seven straight games, tied with Tony Romo for the second-longest streak in Cowboys history (Don Meredith had 12 straight from 1965 to ’66).

Matchup X factor: Cowboys defensive tackle Osa Odighizuwa. Quietly, he’s having a huge season as a pass-rusher. He has just three sacks, but his 20% pass rush win rate at defensive tackle puts him second at the position, behind only Aaron Donald. — Walder

What’s at stake: Big one here. In Dallas, a win would mean it has a 44% chance to take the NFC East and a 19% chance to finish with the No. 1 seed. A loss? Those numbers would be 20% and 3%, respectively. And the Bills could be chasing not only the playoffs (66% with a win, 30% with a loss) but also a division title (34% with a win, 13% with a loss). Read more.

Injuries: Cowboys | Bills

What to know for fantasy: The Cowboys’ secondary has allowed the fifth-fewest passing yards per game to opponents. See Week 15 rankings. — Moody

Betting nugget: The Bills are 2-7 ATS in their past nine games. Unders are 5-1 in the Bills’ past six games. Read more.

Moody’s pick: Cowboys 28, Bills 25
Walder’s pick: Bills 27, Cowboys 23
FPI prediction: DAL, 50.3% (by an average of 0.2 points)

Matchup must-reads: Cowboys ‘didn’t miss a beat’ after McCarthy’s surgery … Cook, Bills’ defense making strides ahead of playoff run … How the Eagles, Niners or Cowboys could claim the No. 1 seed

Why Josh Allen can still be started with confidence in Week 15

Liz Loza breaks down why Josh Allen should be in fantasy managers’ lineups vs. Dallas.

8:20 p.m. ET | NBC | Spread: BAL -3 (42.5)

Storyline to watch: One week after facing the top-ranked defense (Cleveland), the Jaguars get the No. 2 defense with the Ravens. Baltimore leads the league in sacks (49), which is not good for a Jaguars offensive line on its fourth left tackle and third left guard because of injuries. Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence has been sacked 31 times this season, which is one shy of his career high set in 2021. — Mike DiRocco

Bold prediction: Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson will throw for more than 300 yards in back-to-back games for the second time in his career. Jackson ranks 16th in the NFL with 225.7 yards passing per game, but he threw for 316 yards against the Rams on Sunday. The Jaguars have allowed 265.2 passing yards per game, second worst in the NFL, and have given up 300 yards through the air in each of their past three games to C.J. Stroud, Jake Browning and Joe Flacco. — Jamison Hensley

Stat to know: Jaguars running back Travis Etienne Jr. has been held under 100 rushing yards in eight consecutive games, the longest streak in his career. He needs one rushing touchdown to be the first Jaguars player with 10 rushing touchdowns in a season since Maurice Jones-Drew in 2009 (15).

Matchup X factor: Ravens pass-rushers Jadeveon Clowney, Odafe Oweh and Justin Madubuike. The Jaguars have the 30th-ranked pass block win rate (48.3%) in the NFL, and Baltimore’s defense, with all of its simulated pressures, should be able to take advantage. — Walder

What’s at stake: The Ravens’ odds in the AFC North swing between 80% (loss) and 94% (win) on Sunday, but they will also be interested in the conference seeding. A victory means 68% odds at the top seed and a bye, whereas a loss slips them to 30%. The Jaguars look good to take the AFC South if they can get a win (95%, as opposed to 79% in a loss), but their No. 1 seed hopes would still be just 13% even if they come out of Sunday victorious. Read more.

Injuries: Ravens | Jaguars

What to know for fantasy: For fantasy managers, Zay Flowers is trending up at the perfect time. In two consecutive games, the Ravens receiver has had eight or more targets and scored 20 or more fantasy points. In the past four weeks, the Jaguars’ defense has allowed the fourth-most fantasy points per game to wide receivers. Also, Jacksonville’s defense gives up the third-most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks, which bodes well for Jackson. See Week 15 rankings. — Moody

Betting nugget: The Jaguars are 7-3 ATS in their past 10 games. Read more.

Moody’s pick: Ravens 25, Jaguars 24
Walder’s pick: Ravens 28, Jaguars 17
FPI prediction: BAL, 63.8% (by an average of 4.7 points)

Matchup must-reads: Ravens signing Cunningham, reuniting him with Jackson … Ex-Jaguars employee pleads guilty to charges over team theft … Ravens’ Jackson spurs Super Bowl aspirations

Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET | ESPN | Spread: PHI -3.5 (47.5)

Storyline to watch: It’s a matchup of two of the leading candidates for Defensive Rookie of the Year. Seahawks cornerback Devon Witherspoon, the fifth overall pick, has 3.0 sacks, 16 passes defensed and a 97-yard pick-six on his résumé. Eagles defensive tackle Jalen Carter, chosen four spots after Witherspoon, has 4.0 sacks, six tackles for loss and the fourth-best pass rush win rate among interior defenders. With a national audience watching Monday night, this game could go a long way in determining the DROY winner. — Brady Henderson

Bold prediction: Seattle rookie receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba will set a career high in receiving yards. The Eagles’ pass defense, ranked 28th in the NFL, is particularly vulnerable over the middle. Smith-Njigba lines up in the slot on 67% of his snaps, per NFL Next Gen Stats, and has a good shot at generating an explosive play or two and surpassing his previous high of 63 yards. — Tim McManus

Stat to know: The Seahawks are 13-4 (.765) on “Monday Night Football” under coach Pete Carroll. Only the Steelers have a better winning percentage on MNF since 2010 (.833, 15-3 record).

Matchup X factor: Seahawks wide receiver Tyler Lockett. He’s having a down year with just 1.7 yards per route run — he was at 2.1 and 2.5 in 2022 and 2021, respectively — and Seattle is going to need his incredible deep-ball ability to pull off this upset. — Walder

What’s at stake: Philly is suddenly fending off Dallas in the NFC East, though a win would help its case there. The Eagles would be 81% to win the division if they win on the road Monday, while a loss would make it a 50-50 endeavor. (Top seed implications here are Philadelphia either being at 44% in a win or 10% in a loss.) And then there are the Seahawks amid a tough stretch in their schedule. Seattle’s playoff chances would be steady at 46% if it wins but just 11% if it drops another game. Read more.

Injuries: Eagles | Seahawks

What to know for fantasy: Seattle running backs Kenneth Walker III and Zach Charbonnet have a difficult matchup against an Eagles defense that allows the fewest fantasy points per game to running backs. The Seahawks are more likely to lean on the passing game against Philadelphia. The Eagles’ defense gives up the most fantasy points per game to wide receivers. See Week 15 rankings. — Moody

Can Jaxon Smith-Njigba break out in a terrific matchup vs. Eagles?

Daniel Dopp, Field Yates and Tyler Fulghum break down whether fantasy managers should start Jaxon Smith-Njigba on Monday Night Football.

Betting nugget: Five straight Eagles games following a loss have gone under the total. Read more.

Moody’s pick: Eagles 31, Seahawks 21
Walder’s pick: Eagles 28, Seahawks 20
FPI prediction: PHI, 57.6% (by an average of 2.6 points)

Matchup must-reads: What the Eagles need to fix to win the No. 1 seed … Seahawks expect Witherspoon back for MNF … How Philadelphia, San Francisco or Dallas could take the top NFC spot … Injured Seahawks QB Smith ‘feels really good,’ Carroll says

NFL Week 15 picks, schedule, odds, injuries, fantasy tips

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