Here we are in the dog days of summer patiently waiting for our favorite NFL team to starts its season. Thanks to free agency, coaching changes and the draft, optimism for many teams will be higher now than it will be at any point this season (unless you’re a Kansas City Chiefs fan). And thanks to ESPN BET, you can add to that excitement by building your 2024 NFL betting portfolio right now.
For the next three days, we will take a look at three intriguing bets for every team, including one for Week 1 of the season. We’ll start with the teams with the lowest expected win totals, moving up to highest.
All odds current as of publication time and courtesy of ESPN BET
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New England Patriots: O/U 4.5 wins (-165/+140)
With the over juiced to -165, I’m not interested in laying that much. It’s an under or pass, hoping Jerod Mayo’s first year bottoms out with a very thin roster on offense. The Patriots rank 31st in ESPN’s initial 2024 Football Power Index and are a +375 favorite to have the fewest wins in the NFL this season.
Season-long prop I’m watching: Rhamondre Stevenson over 4.5 rush TDs (-140)
Stevenson signed a four-year, $36 million extension with the Patriots this offseason. Even with adding Antonio Gibson to the running back room, they’re clearly committed to Stevenson as a focal point of this rebuilt offense. Despite the belief that the Pats won’t be a prolific offense this season, this number is very low for a player who can reasonably expect the bulk of the goal-line carries.
Week 1 bet: Patriots-Bengals Under 43.0 points (-110).
Do we really trust Jacoby Brissett or rookie Drake Maye — making his first NFL start — to go on the road in Week 1 and carry the Patriots’ offense to half of the bargain on the scoreboard? I’m not sure I do.
Carolina Panthers: O/U 5.5 wins (-115/-105)
This is one I’ll probably stay away from because the number is so sharp, but if I had to lean to one side or the other, I’ll be the optimist and lean over 5.5 (-115). I’m a big believer in what new coach Dave Canales will do for Bryce Young and this offense. Carolina plays in an unimposing NFC South. I don’t think this is a playoff team by any stretch of the imagination, but I think they can move from 2-14 to 6-11 in one year.
Season-long prop I’m watching: Bryce Young over 3,175.5 pass yards (-115)
Young had a disastrous rookie campaign that has many wondering whether he’s already a bust. Canales should pay immediate dividends on Young’s numbers. He helped Baker Mayfield earn a $100 million contract last year as the Tampa Bay Buccaneers’ offensive coordinator and Geno Smith earn a $75 million contract the year prior as the Seattle Seahawks’ QBs coach. The upgraded receiving room with Diontae Johnson and Xavier Legette will also be a big benefit.
Week 1 bet: Panthers +5 (-110) at Saints
I believe the presence of Canales will lift this Carolina offense from the doldrums. One thing I never do is bet my money on a Dennis Allen-coached team. He’s one of the worst cover coaches in the league with a 27-42-1 ATS record (39%). With this total being the lowest on the board in Week 1 (40.5 points), +5 should be extremely valuable.
Denver Broncos O/U 5.5 wins (-140/+120)
I really respect Sean Payton’s acumen and ability, but while the Broncos’ schedule appears to be easy on paper, it’s hard to lay -140 on the over with Zach Wilson and rookie Bo Nix as the QB options. This line is probably a pass. Yes, the Broncos play the Raiders twice and match up with the NFC South across conferences, plus they have one of the better home-field advantages in the league. But I just can’t get past the QB issue when looking at that price on 6-plus wins.
Season-long prop I’m watching: Bo Nix under 16.5 pass TDs (-115)
I am always very comfortable taking a rookie QB to go under his season-long props. First off, it’s not certain that Nix will be the starter from Day 1. Even if he is, do we think this Broncos offense is going to be one of the most potent in the league? And then, there is the prospect profile that had some wondering whether he was more of a second- or third-round prospect and not a first-rounder.
Week 1 bet: Seahawks -5 vs. Broncos
With slight hesitance, I’ll lay the -5 with the Seahawks. I don’t love it, but I think Seattle should be able to beat Nix or Wilson by a touchdown at home. My only pause comes from Payton coaching in his 259th game as an NFL head coach and Mike Macdonald in his very first. Despite that, I do think Macdonald is sharp and Seattle’s new offensive coordinator, Ryan Grubb, should be able to get a lot out of the Seahawks’ offensive personnel with Geno Smith at the helm.
Arizona Cardinals O/U 6.5 wins (-155/+135)
I’m not enamored with the price, but I do think the Cardinals can go 7-10 in 2024. I lean toward over 6.5 wins (-155). I think I can find five to six games on the schedule where they’ll be the betting favorite. Sprinkle in an upset or two because of an improved offense, and we’re there.
Season-long prop I’m watching: Kyler Murray over 3,425.5 pass yards (+100)
Murray eclipsed this number in each of his first three seasons in the league, but because of poor injury luck, he has failed to come close in the past two. As long as he stays healthy, I’m very comfortable thinking he can eclipse this mark with two dynamic weapons to throw to in rookie WR Marvin Harrison Jr. and breakout third-year TE Trey McBride.
Week 1 bet: Cardinals-Bills over 48 points (-110)
I think we have serious sneaky shootout potential in Orchard Park. I’ll play the Cardinals’ matchup with Buffalo over 48.0 (-110). You might be surprised to discover Arizona led the league in explosive run rate (10-plus yards) last year at 15.1%. Buffalo ranked a very respectable 10th in that metric. Both teams can run the rock and both QBs — Josh Allen and Murray — can make big plays happen through the air and on the ground. Add in the debut of Harrison, and I like the setting for this game to pop off in Week 1.
Las Vegas Raiders O/U 6.5 wins (-130/+110)
I really like under 6.5 (+110). The Raiders are stuck with Gardner Minshew and/or Aidan O’Connell at QB this season. That’s just not good enough to get to 7-plus wins in my eyes.
Season-long prop I’m watching: Brock Bowers under 675.5 receiving yds (-130)
Bowers is a fantastic young prospect stuck in a horrible situation. First of all, Antonio Pierce made it abundantly clear that he’s going to run the football as often as possible. Frankly, it makes sense given his option at QB. Second, the majority of the target volume in this offense is going to be sucked up by WR Davante Adams. Even second-year TE Michael Mayer provides some level of competition that hinders Bowers’ upside.
Week 1 bet: Raiders-Chargers under 43.5 points (-115)
Under 43.5 (-115) might be my favorite Week 1 bet right now. Pierce and Jim Harbaugh could conceivably run the ball more than 80 times in this game. Each offense is severely lacking in big-play ability. The Chargers have few threats at WR and the Raiders don’t have a reliable QB to get the ball to Adams. This has all the makings of a 17-13 kind of game.
Minnesota Vikings O/U 6.5 wins (-140/+120)
This is another one where I’ll default to the price on the under 6.5 (+120). The first two months of Minnesota’s schedule are pretty brutal. If they can’t beat the Giants in Week 1, they’re looking at a potential 0-7 start. If that’s the case, Kevin O’Connell likely will have to change from Sam Darnold to rookie J.J. McCarthy at QB. Add some difficult NFC North competition, and the under is most appealing here.
Season-long prop I’m watching: Justin Jefferson over 1275.5 receiving yards (-115)
Jefferson is a QB-agnostic type of talent at wide receiver. It doesn’t really matter who’s throwing the ball — he’s going to produce as long as he stays healthy. Jefferson had a 12-catch, 192-yard performance in Week 17 last year with Nick Mullens as his QB. He’ll get his targets and he’ll produce yards whether it’s Darnold or McCarthy throwing him the rock.
Week 1 bet: Giants (PK) vs. Vikings
In a coin flip game, I’ll side with the Giants (PK) at home in Week 1. While the Giants certainly weren’t as good as their 2022 record indicated, I similarly think they aren’t quite as bad as their 2023 record. Daniel Jones should be fully recovered from his ACL injury, and now with Malik Nabers and a healthier O-line around him, I think you’re getting about 1.5 points of value in this spot on the G-Men.
New York Giants O/U 6.5 wins (+120/-140)
If Daniel Jones can stay healthy, I’ll bite on the value of the Giants going over 6.5 (+120) wins. I don’t think this is a playoff team, but I also don’t think this is a bottom-dwelling roster. Wide receiver Malik Nabers has the prospect profile of a superstar. Andrew Thomas is one of the best left tackles in the league. Same for Dexter Lawrence II at nose tackle. They have two dynamic pass rushers in Kayvon Thibodeaux and free agent addition Brian Burns. I can easily see this team getting to at least a 7-10 record.
Season-long prop I’m watching: Malik Nabers over 850.5 receiving yards (-115)
I have to admit that when I first saw this number posted, I wanted to bet the under. I even mentioned it on ESPN BET Live. But after further reflection, I really like the situation Nabers steps into. There is very little target competition for Nabers in this offense. There’s a lot of depth, but no one matches his ability. I don’t think Jones is an elite QB, but I trust Brian Daboll and Mike Kafka to intelligently game plan to get the ball in Nabers’ hands as often as possible.
Week 1 bet: I’m still going with the Giants (see above).
Tennessee Titans O/U 6.5 wins (+115/-135)
I’d rather fire on the under 6.5 wins (-135) than the over with this team in this division. I think they enter 2024 with the weakest QB in the division. I’m not saying Will Levis can’t or won’t be good, it’s just at this moment I’d rather have C.J. Stroud, Trevor Lawrence or Anthony Richardson. Brian Callahan should help make this a more legitimate offense; it just doesn’t look like enough to be a seven-win team.
Season-long prop I’m watching: Will Levis over 3,450.5 passing yards (-115)
The Titans did well to upgrade the environment around their second-year QB. Calvin Ridley and Tyler Boyd bolster the WR room with veteran ability on the perimeter and in the slot. Tony Pollard and Tyjae Spears are both adept in the pass game out of the backfield. Callahan comes over from a Cincinnati scheme that passed the ball at a high rate. This is a very reasonable number for Levis to achieve in Year 2, especially if the Titans are trailing often this season.
Week 1 bet: Titans (+4.5) vs. Bears (-110)
The Titans are in Chicago taking on the Bears and Caleb Williams in his first start. I think Chicago is going to be an improved team, but I think the markets have been a little aggressive with that assumption. I’ll take anything over a field goal with the visiting Titans, who I wouldn’t be surprised to see go into Chicago in Week 1 and earn an upset victory.
Washington Commanders O/U 6.5 wins (-120/even)
Jayden Daniels is going to be fun to watch in his rookie season, but this is an under 6.5 wins (+100) wager for me. Although Dan Quinn is a new head coach with a defensive background, I think the Commanders will struggle on that side of the ball. This could be a team that plays in a lot of high-scoring and entertaining games if Daniels is the real deal.
Season-long prop I’m watching: Terry McLaurin over 900.5 receiving yards (-115)
McLaurin has long been one of the most skilled receivers in the league stuck with below-average QB play. Daniels immediately brings a set of skills throwing the ball to the deep and intermediate parts of the field that fit with where McLaurin wins. McLaurin has cleared this mark in all five of his NFL seasons, so I see injury as the only threat to the over in 2024.
Week 1 bet: Over 41.5 (-105) at Tampa Bay
Like I mentioned earlier, the Commanders are a potential “sneaky shootout” team for 2024. If Daniels pays immediate dividends for Washington’s offense, he could help force the Commanders into a lot of overs in 2024 because I don’t think Dan Quinn’s defense has the personnel to consistently stop opposing teams right now.
New Orleans Saints O/U 7.5 wins (-120/even)
Dennis Allen is my favorite head coach to fade, so I’ll take under 7.5 (+100). Derek Carr also does little to inspire me at the quarterback position. I wouldn’t be surprised if the Saints actually finish behind the Panthers in the division this year.
Season-long prop I’m watching: Chris Olave over 1,025.5 receiving yards (-115)
Olave is easily the best weapon in this offense, which now has Klint Kubiak as the new OC. The third-year pro has eclipsed this mark in each of his first two seasons, and with Michael Thomas now gone and very little else established around him, Olave should be a consistent target earner. I think he is poised to have a great season for a mediocre-to-bad team.
Week 1 bet: Sticking with the Panthers to cover (see above).
Seattle Seahawks O/U 7.5 wins (-130/ +110)
Seattle has a roster on paper that should be able to compete with every team in the NFC, including the San Francisco 49ers. New head coach Mike MacDonald is considered one of the brightest young minds in the game, and he tapped into college to grab former Washington Huskies offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb as his new OC. The Seahawks are a team that shouldn’t shock anyone if they’re contending for a playoff spot come January. I’ll go over over 7.5 (-130).
Season-long prop I’m watching: Geno Smith over 3450.5 passing yards (-115)
Smith soared over this total in 2022 and, even in a 2023 that saw major regression, he was still able to surpass this number. His WR corps is deep and versatile with DK Metcalf, Tyler Lockett and Jaxon Smith-Njigba. Ryan Grubb should only help him leverage that talent through the air.
Week 1 bet: See the Broncos section above.
All odds current as of publication time and courtesy of ESPN BET.
Chicago Bears O/U 8.5 wins (-155/+135)
I’ll look at an alternate total and play under 9.5 (-145). It’s less juicy than paying the price on them to go over 8.5 and, while I think the team is poised to make a jump with Caleb Williams, the market is assuming that a little more aggressively than I believe to be true. The NFC North is going to provide difficult competition.
Season-long prop I’m watching: Caleb Williams to win Rookie of the Year (+150)
Despite being an overwhelming preseason favorite in this market, I don’t hate the price on Williams. Jayden Daniels is likely the stiffest competition, but I think the Bears will be at least a couple of wins better than the Washington Commanders. Williams also has a very friendly environment to step into for immediate production with DJ Moore, Keenan Allen and rookie Rome Odunze to throw to.
Week 1 bet: Titans +4.5 (-110)
The Titans are in Chicago taking on the Bears and Williams in his first start. I think Chicago is going to be an improved team in 2024, but I think the markets have been a little aggressive with that assumption. I’ll take anything over a field goal with the visiting Titans, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see Tennessee go into Chicago in Week 1 and earn an upset win. Betting against rookie QBs in their first ever start is usually a profitable endeavor.
Cleveland Browns O/U 8.5 wins (-140/+120)
Handicapping the Browns comes down to how good you think Deshaun Watson is. It’s looking more and more like he’ll never be the QB he once was, but this roster and head coach were good enough to get this team to the playoffs last year with Joe Flacco handling the most important games down the stretch. That alone makes me think the floor for this team is eight wins.
Season-long prop I’m watching: Myles Garrett to win Defensive Player of the Year (+750).
Why not run it back with the 2023 NFL Defensive Player of the Year? Garrett is the most physically imposing defensive presence in the NFL. He’s a rare blend of size, speed, and athleticism and he’s in his athletic prime. He could be beginning an Aaron Donald-like run of dominance and Cleveland should once again have a very good defense. If the Browns contend for the AFC North or if Garrett racks up a career-high number of sacks, he’s going to be right there in this market at the end.
Week 1 bet: Cleveland and Dallas face off in Week 1, meaning viewers will get treated to either Micah Parsons or Myles Garrett on almost every snap of the game. It also means I like the game to go under 43.5 (-105). The Cowboys’ offense line looks much weaker on paper this year and I’m not convinced we can trust Watson to lift an offense at this point in his career.
Indianapolis Colts O/U 8.5 wins (+105/-125)
I am buying all the stock I can in the Anthony Richardson/Shane Steichen duo. I think they are capable of something really special from a statistical standpoint if Richardson stays healthy the entire season. Not surprisingly, I’ll take the Colts over 8.5 wins (+105). Everyone is excited about the Texans being a trendy Super Bowl pick after last year, but we shouldn’t forget that it was the Colts who were just a dropped 4th-down pass away from winning this division… without Richardson at QB. I’m comfortable playing the Colts to win the AFC South as a dark horse candidate while everyone else is focused on Houston.
Season-long prop I’m watching: Anthony Richardson to win MVP (+3000).
If I’m going to play any QB in this market that is not one of the top 4-5 favorites, I’m definitely looking hardest at Richardson. He accounted for 7 TDs (four rushing) in just 173 snaps as a rookie. It’s not unreasonable to think he can maintain that rate. Shane Steichen almost led the Colts to the playoffs with Gardner Minshew as his QB after Richardson’s injury.
Week 1 bet: Colts-Texans over 48.5 (-105)
It’s Richardson vs. Stroud. It’s indoors, on turf. Sign me up for a shootout. This should be one of the most enjoyable games on the Week 1 slate. Both offenses should be able to push each other, and the Colts are expected to be one of the fastest-paced teams in the league, which boosts play volume for their opponents. That’s a good thing for scoring against an offense as efficient as Houston’s.
Jacksonville Jaguars O/U 8.5 wins (-110/-110)
This is tough because I am a believer in Trevor Lawrence as a franchise quarterback, but I’m taking under 8.5 (-110) with the slightest lean for 2024. Lawrence feels like the modern-day Matthew Stafford: a Super Bowl caliber QB taken No. 1 overall by a franchise incapable of maximizing his talents. Because of Lawrence, I don’t think this team bottoms out with just 4-5 wins, but since I like the Colts so much and I have to respect what the Texans look like on paper as the division favorites, it’s hard to get the Jaguars to nine-plus wins. I don’t love it, but I think this is the third-best team in the division.
Season-long prop I’m watching: Trevor Lawrence over 21.5 passing TD (-120)
Lawrence cleared this mark in 2022 with 25 passing scores but fell back to 21 in 2023. I like him to bounce back and go over this mark in 2024 with maybe his best year statistically of his career. The Jags are set up to play fast and throw a lot and he has plenty of weapons at his disposal with rookie first-rounder Brian Thomas Jr. and free-agent acquisition Gabe Davis joining incumbents Christian Kirk and Evan Engram.
Week 1 bet: One of the most difficult situational tests in all of football is playing an early season game in Miami. The heat and humidity is stifling for the opponent as the Dolphins put them on the sun-drenched sideline and make them wear their dark uniform option. Mike McDaniel’s offenses have always looked their most potent early in the season before the newest wrinkles get put on tape. Even though I think Trevor Lawrence is the better QB in this game, I’ll still ride with the Dolphins -3.5 (-105).
Los Angeles Chargers O/U 8.5 wins (-150/+130)
I am excited to see what impact Jim Harbaugh has on the Chargers in 2024, but I worry that we’ll have to wait until 2025 to see more tangible results. The team is likely the second best in its division but the gap between Kansas City and everyone else is like the largest of any division in the league. An 8-9 record sprinkled with a few upsets and a lot of close, low-scoring losses seems like the most likely outcome, so I like under 8.5 wins (+130).
Season-long prop I’m watching: Jim Harbaugh to win Coach of the Year (+1100)
This is a is a bet I do not want to make. He’s the second-favorite in this market behind Matt Eberflus because of his name cachet and past experience elevating programs. While I think the Chargers will be better because of Harbaugh’s presence, I don’t expect them to take the AFC West from the Chiefs. It’s a pass for me on Harbaugh in this market unless his price dips below +1500.
Week 1 bet: Chargers-Raiders under 43.5 (-115)
This might be my favorite Week 1 bet to make right now. Jim Harbaugh and Antonio Pierce could conceivably run the ball more than 80-plus times in this game. Each offense is severely lacking in explosive play ability and the Chargers have few threats at WR while the Raiders have no QB we can trust to maximize the talents of Davante Adams. This has all the makings of a 17-13 game.
Los Angeles Rams O/U 8.5 wins (-135/+115)
As someone who foolishly overlooked the Rams in 2023, I won’t make that mistake again with a team coached by Sean McVay and quarterbacked by Matthew Stafford. I like the Rams over 8.5 wins (-135) and to make the playoffs. Losing Aaron Donald is massive, but McVay and his staff showed last year that this is still one of the best run football operations in the league. They’ve smashed the draft with players like Puka Nacua, Kyren Williams, Kobie Turner and Byron Young. This team should be back in the playoffs again this year and contend with the 49ers for the NFC West crown.
Season-long prop I’m watching: Jared Verse to win Defensive Rookie of the Year (+1200)
2023 rookies Kobie Turner and Byron Young were threats to win this award last year, so why not lean into the Rams first first-round pick in eight seasons. Verse will be able to team with last year’s duo plus his Florida State teammate Braden Fiske to help account for the loss of Aaron Donald with strength in numbers. Due to his high-intensity motor and brute strength on the edge, Verse could run into eight-plus sacks as a rookie playing off the young talent around him.
Week 1 bet: In a rematch of last year’s highly-entertaining wild-card round matchup, I’ll take the Rams with the points +3.5 and ML (+155). Los Angeles covered this number in their last meeting and almost won the game outright. I think they’re a live underdog to win the game outright but having more than a field goal head start on the scoreboard sounds good to me with how strong their offense should be again. I think we’re in for another tightly contested “coin flip” game.
Pittsburgh Steelers O/U 8.5 wins (+135/-155)
Mike Tomlin has never had a losing season in 17 years on the sideline in Pittsburgh. This is the easiest over 8.5 (+135) of any team in this market. I don’t care if it’s Russell Wilson, Justin Fields, or 75-year old Terry Bradshaw playing QB for this team. They will win at least nine games. The defense still has T.J. Watt and Minkah Fitzpatrick. New OC Arthur Smith is actually a great stylistic fit with how they’ll want to play on offense given the personnel. Just never bet on Mike Tomlin to win fewer games than he loses in a season. It’s proven to be a fool’s errand for 17 consecutive seasons.
Season-long prop I’m watching: It’s not posted at ESPN BET, but I want to know if you think Justin Fields will make more or less than 3.5 starts this season? I think we’ll see him under center for at least four games, most likely at the end of the season. Why wouldn’t Pittsburgh want to see what they have with the former first-round selection. If he plays poorly, then the Steelers will know they need to invest heavily in the position via the draft and free agency in the offseason. If he plays well, they can probably re-sign him at a reasonable rate to enter 2025 as the unquestioned starter — who is still one of the most exciting players at the position in the league.
Week 1 bet: Steelers +2.5 (-110) | ML (+115)
This will be the first game of the new era in Atlanta Falcons football. The fans will be excited to see how Raheem Morris, Zac Robinson and Kirk Cousins will leverage the immense talents of Drake London, Kyle Pitts and Bijan Robinson. I’m excited too. But man, it just feels like Fitzpatrick or Watt will make some kind of crazy play in the 4th quarter that sets up a game-winning field goal in the final seconds for the Steelers to spoil the season debut for Atlanta in front of their home fans.
Atlanta Falcons O/U 9.5 wins (-140/+120)
The price is far from a bargain, but I’ll bite on the Falcons going over 9.5 wins (-140) in 2024. Atlanta’s offense should be better structured to use the talents of its best players. Kirk Cousins is a very good ball distributor that should help Drake London and Kyle Pitts to the best statistical seasons of their careers. Bijan Robinson has the talent to look like prime Todd Gurley in this offense if new OC Zac Robinson uses him the way his old boss Sean McVay used Gurley with the Rams from 2016-18. The NFC South is a weak division that should help Atlanta to a 10-7 record and the division title.
Season-long prop I’m watching: Bijan Robinson to win Offensive Player of the Year (+1800)
Remember how I just said Robinson could look like prime Todd Gurley in this offense? Gurley won Offensive Player of the Year in 2017. He led league in yards from scrimmage (2,093) and total TDs (19) on 343 touches. Robinson was only afforded 272 touches by Arthur Smith as a rookie. It’s time to take the training wheels off and give this man 350-plus touches and watch him eat
Week 1 bet: Same as the Steelers
Green Bay Packers O/U 9.5 wins (-135/+115)
The Packers are the closest thing to the Houston Texans of the NFC. Everyone is salivating at the thought of betting Green Bay to take another leap after last year’s strong finish. I too, lean over 9.5 wins (-135). I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Packers end up as the NFC North champion over the favored Lions. Jordan Love appears to be the real deal, Matt LaFleur is a very good head coach, and the defense has a lot of talent for new coordinator Jeff Hafley to work with.
Season-long prop I’m watching: Jordan Love under 27.5 passing TDs
Love threw 32 TD passes in his breakout 2023 campaign. His TD prop for 2024 is a lofty 27.5. Only Patrick Mahomes, Dak Prescott and Brock Purdy have a higher listed over/under at ESPN BET. I would lean to the under 27.5 (-130). The Packers should be an efficient and capable offense through the air, but they might be playing more games in 2024 “from ahead” in the second half. I can see this number falling back a bit for Love while he still is playing very well.
Week 1 bet: Packers-Eagles Under 48.5 points
The Packers and Eagles play the first ever NFL game in Brazil on a Friday night in Week 1. This is going to be an unusual experience for both teams and, because of the unfamiliarity with what to expect, I lean to the under 48.5 (-110) in this matchup. These should be two of the best offenses in the NFC, but I wonder if the conditions are going to be optimal for each side to operate at peak efficiency? It’s a lean in the summertime that I’ll have to revisit come September when we get closer to kickoff and get more information about weather, field conditions, etc.
Houston Texans O/U 9.5 wins (-140/+120)
It’s hard to see what the Texans did last season, coupled with an offseason where they added WR Stefon Diggs and DE Danielle Hunter, and bet anything but over 9.5 wins (-140). The price (and my affection for the Colts) make this a bet that lacks significant conviction, but the Texans are likely to be a very good team in 2024. They’re built to win now, and the front office did a good job of leveraging that window this offseason. I can see a wild-card team from the AFC South being a 10-plus win team whether it’s Houston, Indianapolis or someone else.
Season-long prop I’m watching: C.J. Stroud to win MVP (+850)
Things are getting out of hand with Stroud in the MVP market (+850). His price is tied with Josh Allen for the second-shortest in the league behind only Patrick Mahomes. Stroud was incredible as a rookie, but the hype has artificially inflated his pricing in this market into a stratosphere it doesn’t yet belong. If I absolutely had to bet Stroud this season to win MVP, I’d wait and hope the Texans start the season slow with a 0-2 or 1-3 record, then fire on Stroud at a greatly reduced price, hoping he gets hot down the stretch and leads Houston to the lofty expectations being bestowed upon them.
Week 1 bet: Same as the Colts
Miami Dolphins O/U 9.5 wins (-125/+105)
Miami should once again have one of the most explosive offenses in the NFL. Tyreek Hill was tracking towards the first ever 2,000-yard receiving season before he got hurt. De’Von Achane had maybe the most explosively efficient season ever by a running back as a rookie. I fully expect Mike McDaniel to once again have some new wrinkles in this offense for the rest of the league to contend with. It’s going to be tough to get to 10-plus wins in the AFC East, but I think Miami can go over 9.5 wins (-125) if the offense stays healthy.
Season-long prop I’m watching: De’Von Achane over 775.5 rushing yards (-115)
After watching what Achane did in 2023, I’m fully expecting big things in his second season. Achane only played in 11 games as a rookie but rushed for 800 yards and averaged 7.8 yards per attempt. His workload should increase from the mere 103 attempts he saw last year. I love taking his over on rushing yards (-115) right now. I wouldn’t be surprised if this closes above 850 by the time we get to Week 1 kickoff. McDaniel is going to have fun finding creative ways to get the speedy Achane the ball in space.
Week 1 bet: Dolphins -3.5 vs. Jaguars
One of the most difficult situational tests in all of football is playing an early season game in Miami. The heat and humidity is stifling as the Dolphins put their opponents on a sun-drenched sideline and make them wear their dark uniforms. Mike McDaniel’s offenses have always looked their most potent early in the season before the newest wrinkles get put on tape. Even though I think Trevor Lawrence is the better QB in this game, I’ll still ride with the Dolphins -3.5 (-105).